WMO warns strong El Niño likely from mid-2026, driving global heat and rainfall shifts The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that an El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, with rising sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific signaling a likely return of the climate pattern as early as May–July 2026. This forecast, based on the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, indicates high confidence in the onset of El Niño following a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year. According to Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, climate models are now strongly aligned, supporting the prediction of El Niño’s development and potential intensification in the months that follow. While models suggest this could be a strong event, the spring predictability barrier presents a challenge to forecast certainty at this time of year, with confidence expected to improve after April. El Niño, characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months. The phenomenon is one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth, capable of reshaping global weather systems and influencing rainfall, drought, and extreme events across regions. Forecasts indicate a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the upcoming three-month period, accompanied by regional variations in rainfall patterns. These changes pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness, prompting governments, humanitarian organizations, and farmers to rely on accurate and timely ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) forecasts to anticipate and respond to potential impacts. The WMO continues to monitor Pacific Ocean conditions closely, emphasizing that while the likelihood of El Niño is increasing, forecast accuracy will improve as the spring predictability barrier diminishes. Updated outlooks will be critical for global planning efforts in the months ahead.
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