Exclusive: China’s Growing Military Power Threatens Australia’s Security

China’s military modernization is significantly expanding its capacity to project power across the Indo-Pacific, creating new strategic challenges for Australia’s long-term security. According to the 2024 Lowy Institute report, Beijing’s military build-up now includes the capability to threaten Australian trade routes, critical subsea infrastructure, and northern territories, marking a historic shift in regional power dynamics.

How China’s Military Reach Has Expanded

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has moved beyond its traditional focus on coastal defense to develop significant expeditionary capabilities. The Lowy Institute analysis notes that China can currently target northern Australia using the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, particularly if launched from artificial islands in the South China Sea.

Beyond direct missile threats, the PLA Navy has demonstrated increased operational range. Recent deployments, including the circumnavigation of Australia by Chinese naval vessels, highlight a growing ability to operate far from the Chinese mainland. Furthermore, the United States Department of Defense’s 2023 China Military Power Report confirms that Beijing is aggressively expanding its fleet of aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered submarines to secure maritime corridors.

Risks to Critical Infrastructure and Trade

Australia’s economic security relies heavily on maritime trade routes passing through the Indonesian archipelago. Analysts warn that these "choke points" are increasingly vulnerable to Chinese influence or direct interdiction.

The security of subsea cables, which carry the vast majority of Australia’s international data and financial traffic, is a primary concern for the Australian Department of Defence. While the Lowy Institute report stops short of predicting immediate conflict, it emphasizes that Beijing’s capability to conduct sophisticated cyber operations against critical infrastructure—or physically sever connectivity—represents a "real and growing" risk to Australian domestic stability.

Why Pacific Basing Remains a Strategic Concern

The Australian government, led by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, has prioritized preventing the establishment of permanent Chinese military bases in the Pacific Islands.

According to the Lowy Institute, China has actively sought basing arrangements across the Pacific since 2018. The establishment of such a facility would fundamentally alter the threat calculus by:

• Bringing central Australian territory within range of Chinese long-range bombers.
• Increasing the frequency of maritime patrols in Australia’s immediate northern approaches.
• Eroding the effectiveness of U.S.-led security architectures in the region.

Regional Security and US Extended Deterrence

The shift in the regional balance of power forces Southeast Asian nations to navigate increasing pressure to align with Chinese security preferences. The Lowy Institute report argues that the primary counterweight to this trend remains the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence.

However, China’s current military trajectory is specifically designed to erode that cohesion. As the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has frequently noted, the "permanent contest" for influence is not merely about potential kinetic conflict, but about the ability of middle powers like Australia to maintain strategic autonomy in an increasingly contested maritime environment.

Key Developments in PLA Capabilities

While China’s direct strike capability remains limited compared to its focus on closer territorial disputes, the speed of its technological advancement suggests that Australia’s security landscape will continue to tighten over the next decade. Monitoring these capabilities remains a critical requirement for Australian defense planners as the regional order evolves.