Iran Conflict Threatens Global Food Supply Through Fertilizer Disruptions

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is extending its reach beyond energy markets, posing a significant threat to the global food supply chain. Disruptions to fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route, are raising concerns about potential food price increases and reduced crop yields.

Fertilizer Supply Chain Under Pressure

More than one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a vital artery for agricultural supply chains. Commercial traffic through the strait has been significantly hampered since the conflict began in late February 2026, coinciding with the crucial spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere. The timing is particularly concerning as fertilizers are applied early in the crop cycle and directly impact yields later in the year.

Rising Fertilizer Prices

Economists and industry experts are already observing a surge in fertilizer prices. According to data from The Fertilizer Institute, the price per short ton of urea fertilizer imports in the U.S. Jumped by 30% between the weeks ending February 27 and March 6, 2026 – encompassing the start of the conflict. Farm Progress reports that as of March 9, 2026, the North America fertilizer price index reached $810 per short ton, exceeding the peak of $776.85 per short ton seen in August 2025.

Impact on Crop Yields and Food Inflation

Reduced fertilizer application rates, a likely consequence of tighter supply and higher prices, could lead to lower yields for key crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice. Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, estimates that the disruption could raise “food-at-home” inflation by roughly 2 percentage points, adding about 0.15 percentage points to headline inflation in the U.S., on top of an existing 0.40 percentage point increase from energy costs.

Global Dependence and Regional Vulnerabilities

The U.S. Relies on global fertilizer markets, importing approximately 20% of its total fertilizer apply. However, nitrogen fertilizers like urea are sourced from a diverse range of suppliers, including Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, and Russia. Asia and Africa are particularly vulnerable, with countries like India heavily reliant on fertilizer exports from the Gulf region, and several African economies depending on imported materials used in fertilizer production. Farm Policy News highlights this dependence.

Potential Beneficiaries: Fertilizer Producers

While farmers and consumers face potential hardship, fertilizer producers could witness a financial benefit from the supply disruption. CF Industries, for example, reached an all-time high on Monday, March 10, 2026, with shares up nearly 10% over the past week – its largest multi-day gain since 2022.

Key Takeaways

• The conflict in Iran is disrupting fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Fertilizer prices are already rising, with urea prices increasing by 30% in the U.S. In early March 2026.
• Reduced fertilizer application rates could lead to lower crop yields and higher food prices.
• Asia and Africa are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on fertilizer exports from the Gulf region.
• Fertilizer producers may benefit from the supply disruption.

The situation remains fluid, and the long-term impact on global food prices will depend on the duration and escalation of the conflict. Continued monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz and fertilizer market dynamics will be crucial for assessing the risks and mitigating potential consequences.