MOSCOW, Idaho – One day Xiaoli Etienne studies how policy changes affect wheat prices, and the next she tells farmers how tariffs affect fertilizer prices. And their bottom line.
That’s her favorite part of the job, as University of Idaho’s Idaho Wheat Commission Bill flory Endowed Chair in Commodity Risk management.
“My main goal is to help farmers feel more confident in making decisions,” Etienne said. “Prices will always fluctuate, that’s the nature of the agriculture markets. But over the last couple of years, we’ve seen much higher volatility then many producers are used to. So it’s important for them to understand what’s driving the price volatilities.”
Most wheat farmers are running at a loss this year, Etienne said.
She recommends cutting every possible cost. For example,she encourages soil testing,to be sure farmers don’t over-apply their fertilizer. Growers should also be aware of farm safety net programs.
Volatility can be good or bad, Etienne said. It presents opportunities for farmers to strategize for their operations.
In a recent statewide survey of more than 500 farmers, Etienne examined how they use different marketing tools, such as cash sales or hedging or futures contracts.
Preliminary analysis showed that most farmers know the tools are good, but aren’t willing to use them because they’re “too complex.”
etienne offers workshops to help farmers better understand how to sell their wheat based on data, instead of instinct or guesswork, she said.
“I want them to feel informed and in control,” Etienne said. “A producer has no control over price, but they can control how they respond to market risk.”
Low price outlook
High stocks on the global market keep wheat prices low,Etienne said. Without a notable weather event, the low price will continue, at least through the next marketing year.
she points to crop insurance and other farm programs as tools to help farmers weather the low-price environment.
Many farmers she speaks to liken today’s prices to the 1980s.
“Producers are very resilient,” she said. “They can always react to the changes and survive in the long run.”
Sell a little bit each month
When Etienne arrived at UI in 2021, growers asked her which marketing strategies had best performed in idaho in recent years.
“We took that question seriously,” Etienne said. With a graduate student, she studied data from various sources.