US and Israel Strikes on Iran Raise Nuclear Proliferation Fears

The recent coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have ignited concerns that the attacks could inadvertently accelerate Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. While the stated goal of the operation was to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and prevent the development of a nuclear weapon, experts warn that the strikes may have the opposite effect, pushing the regime towards weaponization.

Background: Iran’s Nuclear Program

For over two decades, Iran’s nuclear program has been a source of international concern. Despite Tehran’s insistence that its program is solely for civilian purposes, suspicions arose in 2002 with the discovery of undeclared sites for uranium enrichment and heavy water plutonium production. The Council on Foreign Relations details the history of this conflict.

The 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), imposed strict limits and inspections on Iran’s nuclear activities. However, the withdrawal of the United States from the agreement in 2018 under President Donald Trump led Iran to ramp up its enrichment efforts. By last summer, Iran had amassed a stockpile of over 440kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) with 60% purity. Reaching 90% purity – weapons-grade uranium – is a relatively straightforward technical step from this point.

The Strikes and Their Immediate Aftermath

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran. According to Times Now News, the strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and targeted military sites in Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Qum, and Tabriz. President Trump claimed the bombardment had “obliterated” the nuclear program, but initial assessments indicated that deep underground facilities in Isfahan and Natanz remained largely intact.

In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missiles towards Israel and U.S. Facilities across the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Al Jazeera reports preliminary figures of 1,045 deaths in Iran, at least 11 in Israel, six US soldiers, and nine killed in Gulf states as of March 1, 2026.

Following the attacks, Iran restricted access for UN inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to sensitive sites, resulting in the loss of tracking of the 440kg HEU stockpile and activities within the deep tunnels in Isfahan and Natanz. The IAEA has since conceded it cannot verify whether Iran has suspended all enrichment-related activities or the size of its current uranium stockpile.

The Risk of Proliferation

Nuclear proliferation experts express concern that the strikes, intended to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, may ironically increase the likelihood of weaponization. Jeffrey Lewis, a distinguished scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, argues that a vengeful Iran surviving the strike is likely to conclude that possessing a nuclear deterrent is necessary for its security, mirroring North Korea’s approach.

Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, agrees that the attacks have increased the motivation within Iran to pursue weaponization. She also highlights the potential for a global crisis if the regime collapses or a civil war erupts, leading to the possible diversion or theft of the HEU stockpile. Davenport warns of a “real nuclear terrorism risk” associated with the regime change objective.

Current Situation (March 4, 2026)

As of March 4, 2026, tensions remain extremely high. The United States has sunk an Iranian warship, the IRIS Dena, in the Indian Ocean, as reported by Times Now News, killing at least 80 people. Mojtaba Khamenei has been designated as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Hezbollah has joined the conflict, launching strikes on Israeli targets, prompting retaliatory strikes from Israel in Lebanon. The US has also continued to strike targets within Iran. President Trump has suspended trade with Spain due to its refusal to allow US bases to be used for operations against Iran, and has threatened a full trade embargo.