Ireland Faces Significant Challenges Meeting 2030 Climate Action Plan Targets for Residential Heat
Ireland is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for decarbonizing residential heat by 2030, according to a new report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). The report identifies slow progress in key areas – deep energy retrofits, heat pump installations and district heating – as well as discrepancies between predicted and actual energy savings from efficiency measures as primary obstacles.
Retrofit Targets Lagging Significantly
The Climate Action Plan aims for half a million existing Irish homes to undergo deep energy efficiency upgrades by 2030, achieving a Building Energy Rating (BER) of B2 or higher. However, as of the end of 2024, only 58,000 homes had reached this standard – representing just 11.5% of the target.
While the pace of deep retrofitting has accelerated between 2022 and 2024, the ESRI estimates that even maintaining this increased rate will leave Ireland one-third short of its 2030 goal. To stay on track, approximately 75,000 homes would necessitate to be retrofitted annually, a rate three times higher than the number completed in 2024.
Heat Pump Installation Far Behind Schedule
The plan likewise calls for the installation of heat pumps in 400,000 existing dwellings by 2030. Progress on this front is even more concerning, with only slightly over 14,000 heat pumps installed by the end of 2024 – just 3.5% of the target. Current installation rates suggest only 51,400 heat pumps will be installed by 2030, less than 13% of the planned number.
District Heating Progress Falls Short
The third key objective for the residential heat sector is to supply 2.7 terawatt hours per year through district heating networks, enough to serve between 187,000 and 314,000 homes (10% of residential heating demand). Estimates currently suggest that only around 60,000 homes will be connected to district heating by 2030, representing just 20-32% of the target.
Financial Barriers and Homeowner Reluctance
The ESRI report highlights significant financial barriers hindering the adoption of decarbonization measures. After State grants, the median cost of a deep retrofit ranges from €16,378 for an apartment to over €42,900 for a detached house. Monthly repayments on a Government-backed 5-year retrofit loan range from €294.05 for apartment owners to €770.06 for detached house dwellers.
the report indicates that over 40% of homeowners are unlikely to undertake deep retrofits or switch to heat pump systems. 21% have already completed desired renovations, while another 23% are content with their current homes.
Potential Alternative Measures and Targeted Incentives
To meet the decarbonization targets, the ESRI suggests considering additional measures, such as transitioning from carbon-intensive fuels like coal and oil to lower-carbon alternatives like natural gas, LPG, and zero-emission fuels, including Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil (HVO) or biodiesel for home heating.
Dr. Muireann Lynch, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI, emphasized the need to better target grants and incentives and explore alternative technologies for households that won’t be retrofitted. “We consider that there might be something to be said for trying to target grants and incentives a bit better. We should also be looking at alternative and complementary fuels and technologies and considering whether they should be included in the mix,” she said.
Ireland’s Climate Goals
Ireland is committed to reaching climate neutrality by 2050 and delivering a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, compared with 2018 levels . The Climate Action Plan 2024 builds upon previous plans and aligns with legally binding carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings agreed upon by the Government in July 2022 .