Japan’s Takaichi Navigates China Tensions with Focus on Mineral Security

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a significant victory in the February 8, 2026, House of Representatives election, winning a two-thirds majority with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Nippon Ishin no Kai . This supermajority grants her government considerable authority to advance its agenda, particularly in the face of potential opposition from the House of Councillors. A key element of this agenda is bolstering Japan’s economic and mineral security amid escalating tensions with China.

A Convergence of Factors and China’s Role

Takaichi’s electoral success wasn’t attributable to a single factor, but rather a combination of circumstances. However, China loomed large in the campaign, particularly regarding critical minerals and the management of bilateral relations . The Prime Minister skillfully leveraged a routine exploration exercise near Minamitori Island for electoral gain, framing it as a solution to China’s economic coercion.

From Diplomatic Overtures to Rising Tensions

After assuming office on October 21, 2025, Takaichi initially engaged with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in South Korea. However, relations quickly deteriorated following several key events: the dissolution of the 26-year alliance between the LDP and Komeito on October 10, 2025; Takaichi’s November 7, 2025, remarks on Taiwan and collective self-defense; and China’s announcement on January 6, 2026, of export restrictions on dual-use goods, including critical minerals, to Japan.

Echoes of 2010 and a Hardline Stance

China’s export restrictions mirrored a similar, unofficial embargo on rare earth elements imposed in September 2010 following a territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. However, Takaichi, influenced by her mentor Shinzo Abe’s warnings about the “China threat,” demonstrated a greater awareness of supply chain vulnerabilities and the dangers of over-reliance on Chinese critical mineral supplies . Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama publicly condemned China’s actions, calling them an attempt to weaponize critical minerals.

Minamitori Island and the Promise of Deep-Sea Mining

In response, Takaichi announced a snap election on January 19, 2026, free from the moderating influence of Komeito. She adopted a firm nationalist stance towards China, refusing to retract her statements on Taiwan despite diplomatic pressure. A central theme of her campaign was securing Japan’s economic and mineral independence, with a particular focus on Minamitori Island (likewise known as Marcus Island) in the Pacific Ocean.

The government publicized the exploration of Minamitori Island, announcing on February 2, 2026, the successful retrieval of 350 metric tonnes of rare-earth-rich mud from a depth of 6,000 meters. Estimates suggest the seabed around the island holds over 16 million tonnes of rare earth reserves, potentially sufficient to meet global demand for over 700 years .

Challenges and Uncertainties

Despite the optimistic announcements, experts caution that commercial viability of deep-sea mining (DSM) remains a long-term prospect. Current extraction rates of approximately 350 tonnes of REY-rich mud per day would need to increase tenfold to become commercially viable. The location of potential refinery plants poses logistical challenges due to the island’s remoteness. It took five days for the drilling vessel Chikyū to reach Minamitori Island from Shimizu Port.

Environmental concerns also loom large. While Japan amended its Mining Act in 2022 to include rare-earth minerals, it lacks a comprehensive environmental impact assessment framework for seabed resources. The long-term environmental consequences of DSM are still largely unknown.

A Constructed Narrative and Future Implications

Analysts suggest that the Takaichi administration may have exaggerated the immediate prospects of DSM to bolster her election campaign and counter concerns about China’s economic influence. While full-scale extraction remains years away, her government is committed to diversifying critical mineral supply chains, with DSM in the Minamitori Island EEZ as a key component. This policy could potentially escalate tensions with China, particularly given the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning’s entry into the island’s EEZ in June 2025.

Minamitori Island is poised to become a focal point in Japan’s geopolitical strategy in the years to come.