London Art Market Shows Resilience Despite Geopolitical Concerns

London’s art market demonstrated surprising strength at Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary evening sale on March 4, 2026, achieving £131 million with fees, despite ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The strong results signal a potential turning point for the city’s art trade, which has been grappling with the economic effects of Brexit.

Strong Sales Figures and Sell-Through Rate

The auction totaled £106.4 million (excluding fees) against a pre-sale estimate of £96.1 million to £136.4 million. This represents more than double the £63 million achieved in the equivalent sale last year and is close to the £136 million generated in 2023. A near-perfect 98% of lots were sold, with only one work, a 2004 Robert Ryman painting, withdrawn before the sale.

Key Sales and Artist Highlights

A Francis Bacon self-portrait from 1972, gifted to his doctor following a medical procedure, was a highlight, selling for £13.5 million (£16 million with fees) to a phone bidder. However, the evening’s star performer was Leon Kossoff, whose 1971 painting, Children’s Swimming Pool, Autumn Afternoon, achieved £5.2 million (£4.5 million hammer price), a record for the artist. The painting, previously part of the Saatchi Collection and the collection of Joe Lewis, attracted around ten bidders.

Mixed Results for Other Artists

While Kossoff’s work saw significant gains, a nude by Lucian Freud sold around its low estimate of £6 million. Lucio Fontana’s works received a more lukewarm reception, with his 1960 Concetto Spaziale selling at the low estimate of £8.5 million. Art advisor Pauline Haon noted that Fontana’s market has been weaker since 2016 and that his work is not currently favored by younger collectors.

Trends in the Market

The sale demonstrated a preference for established artists and classic tastes, with a focus on Post-Impressionist, Modern, and British and European works. Notably, no artist represented in the sale was under the age of 60, indicating a flight to certainty in the current market.

Positive Outlook, but Challenges Remain

Sotheby’s specialists expressed optimism following the sale, suggesting that London’s art market may be recovering from a period of decline. Ottilie Windsor, Sotheby’s head of contemporary art, London, pointed to the inclusion of three single-owner collections as a sign of renewed confidence among consignors. However, she acknowledged that it will take more than a few successful seasons to fully recover from recent losses. Currently, no consignment this month has surpassed an estimate of £15 million, compared to five works valued at £20 million or more during the March 2019 sales season.

Christie’s 20/21 Century evening sale will be closely watched to determine whether the positive momentum can be sustained.