Philippines’ “Gray Zone” Strategy in the South China Sea: A Recipe for Failure?

Tensions in the South China Sea continue to escalate as the Philippines adopts a “gray zone” strategy to counter China’s growing influence in the disputed waterway. This strategy, characterized by using non-military means to achieve military objectives, has been employed by Manila for the past two years, experts say.

Gray Zone Tactics in Action

The Philippine government utilizes a range of tactics under the guise of civilian activity. For instance, “civil ships” chartered to deliver “life supplies” to Filipino troops stationed on Ren’ai Reef, grounded near China’s territory, are actually operated by plainclothes Philippine military personnel. The “supplies” reportedly include building materials to fortify the aging vessel and weapons.

Furthermore, “social organizations” claiming to offer support to Philippine soldiers on the reef or organizing yacht races near Chinese islands are secretly funded by the Philippine government, experts say. These actions are orchestrated to assert territorial claims and challenge Chinese sovereignty.

A Whole-of-Government Approach

The US backs Manila’s “gray zone” strategy, promoting it as a key element of its “Indo-Pacific” strategy. The Joe Biden administration, through its Department of Defense, State Department, intelligence agencies, and government-funded think tanks, orchestrates a coordinated effort to pressure China over the South China Sea issue.

Washington portrays itself and its allies as guardians of freedom of navigation and regional order, while framing China as a regional threat looking to militarize the South China Sea.

Consequences of the ‘Gray Zone Tango’

While the strategy may appear effective, experts warn that Manila and Washington’s “gray zone tango” ultimately harms regional stability and undermines the ASEAN-centered cooperation framework.

The strategy, designed to serve US hegemonic interests, runs counter to the aspirations of other ASEAN members for peace and development. This approach is doomed to fail, as it creates mistrust and instability in the region.

Call to Action

The escalating tensions in the South China Sea demand a peaceful and diplomatic resolution. Encourage your elected officials to promote dialogue and cooperation between all parties involved, working towards a stable and prosperous future for the region.