Mortgage Rates Climb, Dampening Refinance Demand – Spring Housing Market Outlook
Mortgage rates continued their ascent last week, reaching the highest levels since the end of 2023, and consequently slowing the momentum of refinance applications that had been building earlier in the year. Overall mortgage application volume decreased by 10.9% compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Rate Increases and Application Trends
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($832,750 or less) rose to 6.30% from 6.19%, with points increasing from 0.58 to 0.63, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. This increase is attributed to rising Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical concerns, specifically the conflict in the Middle East, which has contributed to elevated oil prices and the potential for broader inflationary pressures [MBA].
Refinance applications experienced a significant drop, falling 19% week-over-week, although they remain 69% higher than the same week last year. Conventional refinance applications were particularly affected, decreasing by 27% over the week, while government refinances declined by 5% [MBA].
Purchase Applications and Spring Market Outlook
Despite the overall decline, purchase applications managed a slight increase of 1% for the week and are 12% higher than the same week in 2023. The spring housing market, which officially begins at the end of the week, is starting with slightly more inventory compared to last year. Affordability is too showing signs of improvement, with prices either decreasing or remaining flat in some markets compared to spring 2023 [MBA].
Federal Reserve and Market Volatility
While most analysts do not anticipate an interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, commentary from the chairman could still influence bond markets. Market participants are particularly focused on geopolitical influences, which may overshadow any impact from the Fed [MBA].
According to Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, “Fed days can still cause volatility in rates, for better or worse. In [Wednesday’s] case, any impact from the Fed should be smaller than it otherwise would have been due to the market’s preoccupation with geopolitical influences.”
Industry Events and Resources
The California MBA is hosting several upcoming events, including a State and Local Workshop on April 13-14, 2026, and the National Advocacy Conference on April 14-15, 2026, both in Washington, DC [California MBA]. Additional conferences are scheduled for Miami, FL (May 4-7, 2026), and New York, NY & San Diego, CA (May 17-20, 2026) [MBA].
The California Mortgage Association (CMA) focuses on the education of California-licensed private money lenders and advocates for the industry through legislative review [California Mortgage Association]. The California Association of Mortgage Professionals (CAMP) also provides advocacy and resources for mortgage professionals in California [California Association of Mortgage Professionals].