Thailand’s Rising Political Temperature: Pheu Thai‘s Faltering Appeal
As thailand contends with the external heat of the Thai-Cambodian conflict, the domestic political temperature is rising. With a new general election looming, parties are scrambling to give themselves a facelift and undercut opponents’ leverage.
The populist Pheu Thai Party, which led Thailand’s government from August 2023 until August of this year – when its then-leader and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed for an ethics violation – may well have the deepest pockets under the wealth-bloated Shinawatra family. The party’s electoral appeal, though, looks terribly thin with neither powerful policy pledges nor inspiring leadership in sight.
One might question the value of studying how parties appeal to voters when “grand compromises” – bargains and backroom deal-making among political elites – have grown pivotal in determining who secures governing power. Simultaneously occurring, one might argue that parties must secure a promising vote share in the first place to have the upper hand in any bargain.
Pheu Thai,like Thai Rak Thai and the People’s Power Party before it,functions as a vehicle for polarizing former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksinite parties have commanded the mass rural-majoritarian vote for much of the 21st century thus far, by delivering transformative yet straightforward benefits like universal health coverage.Then came the post-2023 election surroundings – building on a 2019 election that was marked by constitutional engineering and the proliferation of new parties – where parties trade partisan identity and ideology for power-sharing. Pheu Thai allied with the very forces it was supposed to challenge for coalition formation and retention: with military-backed parties in 2023, and with its longtime conservative nemesis, the Democrat Party, in 2024.
Perhaps the disappointment could have been compensated with tangible policy achievements. Unfortunately for pheu Thai, its much-touted economic promises have gone unfulfilled and are questionable by design, seen as short-sighted stimulus packages that cannot begin to address deep structural woes. These include the 10,000-baht “digital” wallet handout and the 20-baht flat fare on Bangkok mass transit lines. More disastrous is Pheu Thai’s far-from-passing-grade handling of security matters, as manifested in Paetongtarn’s compromising appeasement of Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, as revealed in the leaked call that ended her tenure as prime minister. Even before the flare-up with Cambodia,Pheu thai’s approach to border security was already poor.
all of this culminated in Pheu Thai’s two consecutive by-election defeats in Sisaket’s Constituency 5 in September and Kanchanaburi’s Constituency 4 in October,to its ally-turned-rival Bhumjaithai,now also at the helm of Thailand’s government. Sisaket has traditionally been a Pheu Thai stronghold. It is also a province that borders Cambodia, where…
Thailand’s Upcoming Election: A Look at Key Parties and Their Prospects
Thailand is gearing up for an election that will test the strength of established political forces and perhaps reshape the country’s political landscape. this analysis examines the current standing and strategies of three key parties: Bhumjaithai, the People’s Party, and Pheu Thai.
Bhumjaithai: A Nationalist and Pragmatic Approach
Bhumjaithai has emerged as a strong contender, particularly benefiting from a surge in nationalist sentiment surrounding recent border disputes. The party has adopted assertive rhetoric and emphasized a security-focused approach, resonating with voters concerned about national sovereignty. Unlike some competitors, Bhumjaithai has cultivated a reputation for effective governance, appointing individuals perceived as competent to key positions.
Notably, the party has included “outsider ministers” – individuals not directly affiliated with the party – who have garnered public approval. These appointments include Suphajee Suthumpun as Commerce Minister, Ekniti Nitithanprapas as Finance Minister, and Sihasak Phuangketkeow as Foreign Minister. Both Suthumpun and Nitithanprapas are being positioned as potential prime ministerial candidates for Bhumjaithai. [https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2734411/bhumjaithai-eyes-prime-minister-seat-with-new-faces]
The People’s Party: Targeting “Grey Money” and Governance Reform
The People’s party is centering its campaign on combating “grey money” – illicit funds linked to criminal activities. This strategy appeals to both reform-minded voters seeking greater clarity in governance and conservative nationalists concerned about thailand’s involvement in transnational scam networks. The party highlights the issue of Thai nationals being involved in scams operating in neighboring countries like Cambodia, arguing that this hinders Thailand’s ability to effectively address the problem. [https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/662f5d242a3e7860ebcfde4f/68264cff356caba111f2db1e_Policies%20and%20Patterns_16052025.pdf] This focus aims to position the People’s Party as a champion of law and order and good governance.
Pheu Thai: Navigating the Shinawatra Legacy
Pheu Thai faces a complex challenge in balancing the legacy of the Shinawatra family with the need to project a fresh image. The party recently replaced Paetongtarn Shinawatra with Julapun Amornvivat,a former deputy finance minister and a long-time Shinawatra loyalist,as its leader.[https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thaksin-daughter-steps-down-pheu-thai-party-leadership-2024-04-27/] Amornvivat, who was the architect of the ultimately unsuccessful digital wallet scheme, is expected to be one of Pheu Thai’s three prime ministerial candidates. Other potential candidates include Thaksin Shinawatra’s son-in-law, Nuttaphong Kunakornwong, and Thaksin’s nephew, Yodchanan Wongsawat.
The party’s prospects are tied to voter sentiment regarding Thaksin Shinawatra himself.His recent return to Thailand to serve a prison sentence, after years in self-imposed exile, has sparked debate. Some believe it has rekindled sympathy among his traditional supporters,while others argue that ongoing legal challenges,including a recent Supreme Court ruling requiring him to pay 17.6 billion baht ($542.37 million) in back taxes, [https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/turbulent-thailand/thailand-s-supreme-court-orders-ex-pm-thaksin-to-pay-542m-in-taxes] have distracted him and diminished his influence.
Ultimately, Pheu Thai appears to be facing a limited path forward, likely confined to maintaining its existing support base or experiencing further decline. Meaningful electoral gains in the current political climate appear unlikely.
Sources:
* Nikkei Asia:[https://asianikkeicom/politics/turbulent-thailand/thailand-s-supreme-court-orders-ex-[https://asianikkeicom/politics/turbulent-thailand/thailand-s-supreme-court-orders-ex-