Sudan’s War: Shifting Fronts, Humanitarian Crisis, and Diplomatic Efforts

As the conflict initiated by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan in April 2023 enters its third year, the military landscape has solidified, particularly at the beginning of 2026. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) retook the capital, Khartoum, in March 2025, shifting the strategic focus to the states of Kordofan and Darfur by the complete of that year. The conflict has evolved, characterized by sieges in these states, the use of starvation tactics, ethnic cleansing, and continued drone attacks.

Normalization in Khartoum, Ongoing Threats

Following the recapture of Khartoum, the SAF has prioritized restoring security and normalizing civilian life in the capital region – Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahri. The resumption of communal iftar tables during Ramadan marked a significant step towards normalcy. However, security remains fragile, as evidenced by an RSF drone attack in February that killed 54 civilians in Omdurman [AP News]. Despite ongoing threats, both civilians and state institutions have largely returned to Khartoum.

Escalating Conflict in Kordofan and Darfur

Kordofan has seen heightened military tension in recent months. The RSF has surrounded El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, on three sides, while fighting has intensified around Kadugli and Dilling in South Kordofan. Reports indicate a surge in RSF drone attacks and over 1 million people displaced in the region since January [AP News]. Health facilities have become direct targets, with three attacked in South Kordofan in February alone.

The fall of el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, to the RSF in October 2025 after a 500-day siege dramatically altered the regional balance. Following this, reports emerged of systematic violence, and allegations surfaced regarding the RSF attempting to conceal evidence by burning or burying tens of thousands of bodies [Long War Journal]. In other parts of Darfur, cities like Nyala have become de facto capitals of the RSF’s parallel administration.

International Efforts and Regional Diplomacy

A donor conference held at the Donald J. Trump Institute for Peace in Washington last month marked a turning point in Sudanese diplomacy. The “Quad” group – the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE – agreed on a peace document deemed “temporarily acceptable” to both sides. The plan includes a three-month unconditional cease-fire for humanitarian aid delivery, the withdrawal of militias from city centers, integration of armed groups into a single national army, and a $1.5 billion aid fund ($200 million from the U.S. And $500 million from the UAE). However, the Sudanese government has objected to the UAE’s involvement due to reported support for the RSF.

A significant development is the official visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which signals a restructuring of regional security. The resulting 31-point joint statement emphasizes preserving Sudan’s status quo and legitimacy. Both Türkiye and Saudi Arabia agree on the need to protect Sudan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, rejecting “parallel structures” outside legitimate institutions, particularly the RSF militias [Al Jazeera].

The joint statement also focuses on opening logistical corridors for humanitarian aid, supporting the Sudanese army’s strategic decisions. Keeping the Adre Border Gate (Sudan-Chad) open and opening airports in Kassala, Dongola, el-Obeid, and the Kadugli border crossing are considered critical steps in alleviating the humanitarian crisis, particularly in Darfur.

This stance by Türkiye and Saudi Arabia is expected to influence other regional actors, potentially pushing the RSF towards negotiations and fostering international unity based on legitimacy.