There are 77 years left to meet the Paris Agreement, or in other words, limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, but the goal is evaporating. This is what the world’s leading researchers have told the 80,000 delegates of the Dubai Climate Summitto those who have delivered their report 10 New Reflections in Climate Science.
The study, prepared between Future Earth, The Earth League y World Climate Research Programme, has been released annually since 2017 in each of the COPs. In this edition, 67 researchers from 24 countries have participated, in charge of reviewing the most relevant findings in climate science, and offering 10 key ideas for the negotiations of the COP28and that they become political agreements.
In this way, the new objective becomes to fail to comply with the Paris Agreement but for the shortest time possible. At this rate, it is expected that with the full implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC, the individual efforts of each country) pre-industrial levels will be exceeded by 2.5 degrees with a 66% possibility. In fact, If current climate policies continue, global warming by the end of the century will be 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels.. Double what was foreseen in the Paris Agreement.
At this rate, it will be necessary to reduce CO2 emissions by 28% between now and 2030 to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees, with a 66% possibility, but emissions would have to be reduced by 42%, that is 22 gigatolens, to reach the increasingly unrealistic goal of 1.5 degrees by 2100.
The problem, according to the UN, is thatGreenhouse gas emissions not only do not reduce but they do not stop increasing. Specifically, at a rate of 1.2% between 2021 and 2022, up to 57.4 gigatonnes of CO2. These are figures that call into question the credibility of Summits like the COP. “The planet is fed up with unfulfilled climate agreements”, “with financial aid that does not arrive” and with “eloquent and empty speeches”, denounced the Brazilian president last Friday before 140 world leaders. At this COP, says Greenpeace COP28 Senior Advisor Kaisa Kosonen, or “commitments and transformative actions” will be seen, or “we will attend the definitive ecopostureo”.
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