Pollsters Reflect on 2024, Seek to Improve Accuracy

Pre-election polls this year didn’t quite capture the strength of Democratic candidates in many states. And in recent presidential elections, they underestimated Republican support. A new report on 2024 poll performance, along with insights from experienced pollsters, explores the challenges they faced and what they’re doing to improve. A new election polling operation launched last Tuesday, marking the latest step in the industry’s evolution.

Looking Back at 2024: Pollsters had significant, well-documented issues in both 2016 and 2020. After those elections, a group of experts came together to figure out what went wrong. On October 29, the american Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) released its assessment of the 2024 election, building on previous work.

The nearly 80-page report is a deep dive, but the executive summary highlights the key findings.The AAPOR task force analyzed 116 general election polls conducted between October 23 and November 5, 2024. They concluded that “public polls painted an essentially accurate picture of an extraordinarily close contest.” They also said state polls were the most accurate they’ve been since 1944,while national polls were “about average.” There were twice as many state-level polls – mostly in swing states – as national polls in 2024, and that trend is expected to continue.

In 2024, polls again underestimated the Republican vote share, like they did in 2016 and 2020, but to a lesser degree. Polling firms used different methods and approaches, including weighting by partisan identification and using detailed models to predict who would likely vote.