China’s CO2 Emissions Plateau in 2025
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November 14, 2025 – The final balance sheet for 2025 is not yet available, but the trend has particular symbolic power. Since March 2024,China’s carbon dioxide emissions have not increased further. The analysis company Carbon Brief has evaluated the data from the first nine months of this year and even believes a slight decline is possible. But even if this doesn’t happen, the development is remarkable because demand for electricity rose by around six percent.
Despite this positive milestone, China will not achieve its self-imposed targets too reduce carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) by the end of 2025. This means the country will need to achieve even greater reductions in the next few years.
Declines in Traffic, Cement and Steel, Increases in the Chemical Industry
The overall unchanged emissions reflect contrasting trends in different economic sectors. Due to the slowdown in the real estate market, emissions from the production of cement and building materials fell by seven percent. Overall steel production, on the other hand, fell more than its emissions – meaning that coal-based steel products were in greater demand than lower-carbon steel products.
Emissions from transport fell by five percent. The reason: the increasing proportion of electric vehicle drives. On the other hand, oil consumption in the chemical industry rose by ten percent – associated with more emissions.
Expansion of Solar and Wind Energy Slows Emissions from the Electricity Sector
emissions in the power sector, China’s main CO2 source, were largely offset by the expansion of renewable energies. The share of coal-fired power plants in electricity generation decreased, while solar and wind energy accounted for a larger proportion. This expansion slowed the growth of emissions from the electricity sector despite rising demand.
Key Factors Contributing to the Plateau
- Slowdown in Real Estate: Reduced demand for cement and building materials considerably lowered emissions.
- Electric Vehicle Adoption: Increased use of electric vehicles decreased emissions from the transportation sector.
- Renewable Energy Growth: Expansion of solar and wind power offset emissions growth in the electricity sector.
Challenges remain
While the plateau in emissions is a positive sign, China still faces critically important challenges in meeting its long-term climate goals. The increase in oil consumption within the chemical industry and the continued reliance on coal in steel production demonstrate areas needing further attention. Achieving deeper emissions cuts will require sustained investment in renewable energy, improvements in energy efficiency, and a shift towards more sustainable industrial practices.
Looking Ahead
China’s ability to maintain this emissions plateau and ultimately achieve significant reductions will be crucial for global efforts to combat climate change. The country’s continued investment in renewable energy and its commitment to transitioning away from coal will be key factors in determining its future emissions trajectory. Further analysis of the full-year 2025 data will provide a clearer picture of China’s progress and the challenges that lie ahead.