Kuleba Warns of Repeating Mistakes in Ukraine War as Middle East Conflict Escalates

Ukraine’s former foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has cautioned against repeating strategic errors observed during Russia’s full-scale invasion as conflicts intensify in the Middle East. Kuleba highlighted concerns regarding the cost-effectiveness of air defense systems, the potential for prolonged warfare, and the evolving perception of security for wealthy nations.

Drone Warfare and Costly Interceptions

Kuleba pointed out the disparity between the cost of intercepting inexpensive Iranian Shahed drones with expensive anti-aircraft missiles. He noted that this issue mirrors a lesson Ukraine learned in 2023, observing that others are “learning it the hard way.” Al Jazeera reported on Kuleba’s observations on February 23, 2026, marking four years since the start of the full-scale invasion.

A Protracted Conflict?

The former foreign minister also warned against anticipating a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, drawing parallels to initial expectations surrounding the war in Ukraine. Kuleba suggested that a short war is only plausible if the U.S. Pursues a policy of regime change in Iran, but cautioned that such a strategy could backfire, leading to further instability and a new cycle of conflict.

Shifting Security Perceptions

Kuleba expressed concern that attacks targeting wealthy cities demonstrate a breakdown in the psychological barrier of security. He argued that the ability to strike locations like Dubai suggests that previously considered “safe” areas are now vulnerable, potentially making symbols of wealth and comfort legitimate targets.

Expert Concerns and Escalation Risks

Cecilie Hellestveit, an international law expert, echoed Kuleba’s concerns about the broader implications of the conflict. While acknowledging the drone threat, Hellestveit emphasized the greater risks posed by cyberattacks and maritime operations. She highlighted the significance of the U.S. Attack on an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean, noting it was the first such action since World War II and a potentially destabilizing escalation. Harvard’s Davis Center published an interview with Kuleba on December 6, 2025, detailing these concerns.

The US-Iran Conflict: Background and Potential Consequences

Relations between the United States and Iran have been strained since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence have led to sanctions and mistrust. The recent attacks and counterattacks between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have escalated tensions, raising the possibility of a wider regional war. Such a conflict could disrupt global oil supplies and trigger an economic crisis.

Lebanon’s Involvement

Hezbollah in Lebanon, a close ally of Iran, has also become involved in the conflict, launching missiles at Israel and prompting retaliatory attacks. This has led to civilian displacement and further instability in the region.

Key Takeaways

• The use of inexpensive drones against costly air defense systems is a recurring issue in modern warfare.
• Conflicts are often more protracted than initially anticipated.
• Attacks on major cities challenge traditional notions of security.
• Escalation in maritime domains poses significant risks.