Why Netanyahu Decided to Strike Iran Now

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Early on Friday, Israel launched a major attack on Iranian nuclear sites and weapons facilities, and targeted many of its top military officials. In retaliation, Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem late Friday. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, said that the strikes would “continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” In response, President Trump, who had recently said that he wanted to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran—during his first term, he pulled out of the original nuclear deal signed during the Obama Administration —expressed strong support for the Israeli attack, saying, “I think it’s been excellent. We gave [the Iranians] a chance and they didn’t take it. They got hit hard, very hard. . . . And there’s more to come.”

On Friday, I spoke by phone with Aluf Benn, the editor-in-chief of Haaretz. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed Netanyahu’s motives for ordering a strike, how the Prime Minister uses his understanding of Trump to pursue his own agenda, and what this attack means for the future of the region.

Why do you think this is happening right now, in June of 2025, rather than earlier or in the future?

First of all, Israel has been at war with the Iranian “axis of resistance” for almost two years now. Second, Israel, for more than twenty years, has been designing and preparing a plan to attack Iran under successive leaders. For most of that time, it was Netanyahu in charge, but military leaders have long been thinking of dismantling Iran’s nuclear facilities in the same way that Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981 and then in Syria in 2007. In both cases, those nuclear programs were seen as existential threats to Israel, and the goal was to preëmpt, delay, or destroy the main nuclear facilities.

So the idea of bombing Iran has been around for two decades. It peaked around 2012, under Netanyahu and then Defense Minister Ehud Barak, but they were stopped by the Obama Administration, which eventually signed a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear program. At that point, some of the Israeli security and intelligence chiefs were thinking that Israel should not go it alone and never attack Iran without American consent and prior knowledge. In 1981, Menachem Begin, the Prime Minister, bombed the nuclear reactor near Baghdad without telling the Americans. And that created tension between the two governments for a while. But, in 2007, Ehud Olmert told George W. Bush about a reactor that was being built in the Syrian desert at the time. It was a secret facility. We shared the intelligence with Bush, and Bush was thinking for a while of attacking with American forces. But then the Americans decided not to, and they just let Israel destroy the facility. Israel did not take responsibility for the strike for almost a decade in order not to embarrass Bashar al-Assad and force him into retaliation.

Discretion is not the case today. This attack is very visible and follows two exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel last year, in which Iran retaliated in April for the assassination of one of its generals in Damascus. They fired all kinds of drones in response. But their attack failed because Israel was protected by a coalition that included Centcom [the U.S. Central Command]. And then in October, once again, there were missile attacks by Iran and an Israeli attack that was successful in dismantling Iranian air defenses. This was followed by the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria, the two main allies of Iran in our vicinity. And that paved the way and opened the corridor for an eventual attack on the nuclear facilities. But they waited for Trump to give the green light.

There had been concern among some more hawkish Israelis that Trump would not give a green light to this strike, because he wanted a deal with Iran. But what you seem to be saying is that one crucial thing that’s changed is, in fact, the timing and Trump being in office.

First of all, the operational opportunity to have an open corridor because of the suppression of Iranian air defenses in October mattered, and the Russians did not replenish Iranian stockpiles and systems afterward. And then there was the subsequent defeat of Hezbollah by the I.D.F., the decapitation of its leadership, the destruction of most of its strong ballistic-missile force, and then Assad falling. So now you can deploy a very large force to destroy targets within Iran. And it was reported recently that Israel had finished its preparations and Netanyahu was pushing for an attack on Iran. There were some different signs, like public opposition by Trump, even as recently as this week, but clearly Netanyahu told him about it in advance.

And today Trump has been very supportive.

Underneath that Presidential support, we have one thing that is crucial, and that was one of the last decisions of Trump’s first term, which was to include Israel in Centcom. That enabled Israel to be part of the U.S. regional air-defense and missile-defense system. So Israel is now relying not on American bombers and American soldiers on the ground but you have coördination, coöperation, intelligence sharing, et cetera.

It seems that Netanyahu has a pretty good understanding of Trump in terms of both Iran and Gaza. Trump will say he wants to make a deal with Iran. He’ll say he wants a ceasefire in Gaza, but whether it’s his attention span or his lack of actually caring about it, he is not really going to put pressure on Israel to keep it from doing what it wants to do.

In Gaza, there’s been a lot of criticism of what Israel has done. But over all, historically, America has given Israel quite a free hand vis-à-vis the Palestinians. It was always different on regional matters, where America always had the final word, even when it followed what Israel wanted. Like Trump’s decision to leave the nuclear deal in 2018—it always had the final word. And, in this case, too, Trump wanted a deal. If the Iranians had agreed to the American terms to stop uranium enrichment, they could have had a deal. Trump gave them time, and then they didn’t respond, so Israel attacked. In a similar way, Israel begged for a ceasefire with Hezbollah in the north and the now deceased leader of Hezbollah at the time was saying, “No, we are going to support our brothers in Gaza, and we’re going to keep firing at Israel and keep that second front open.” They could have been saved.

You could say that Israel could have stopped the war in Gaza, and that could have helped things regionally, too.

Definitely. But Netanyahu is still committed to the final occupation of Gaza and destruction of the Palestinians . . . of Hamas, and to eventually drive out the Palestinians from there, and follow what he calls the Trump plan: just giving the land to resorts and to Israeli settlements. This is still the official Israeli policy in Gaza.

Would Israel now suffice with the attack on Iran to let go of Gaza or, on the contrary, use the defeat of the axis of resistance to conclude the occupation of Gaza and the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians? That remains to be seen.

Reading your newspaper, it’s very clear to me that many people believe that Netanyahu is extending the war in Gaza for his own political reasons and that you can’t separate the war from Netanyahu’s personal desires. Is that the case here?

Well, first of all, with attacking Iran, there’s very strong support within Israel, at least within the Jewish society—I would say a virtual consensus. We wrote an editorial saying, “Don’t go to war,” but it’s a minority position, and it’s going to be an even smaller minority if Israel succeeds in wiping out the Iranian nuclear program and forcing Iran to capitulate in some way, or if there is an Iranian regime change. But, besides that, one of Netanyahu’s abilities throughout the war, even when he and his leadership are unpopular and still lagging behind in public-opinion surveys, has been to pursue popular policies. The policy of destruction and even partial occupation of Gaza has been very popular, to punish Hamas for what it did on October 7th. The policy of attacking Iran is extremely popular, and there’s no real opposition to that in Israel. The opposition was only the fear of alienating the United States, or the fear that such an operation is too risky to be successful.

Decoding NetanyahuS decision: why Strike Iran Now?

The question of whether Israel, under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, might decide to strike Iran is a complex one, fraught with geopolitical implications. Understanding such a decision requires analyzing a confluence of factors, ranging from Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities to international relations and domestic Israeli politics. Here,we delve into the potential motivations and considerations that might lead to such a momentous event.

The Looming Shadow of Iran’s Nuclear Program

Perhaps the most important driver behind any potential Israeli strike on Iran is the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Israel views Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons as an existential threat, a position that has remained consistent across different Israeli governments. The concern stems from repeated statements by Iranian leaders perceived as threatening Israel’s existence coupled with iran’s advancements in uranium enrichment and nuclear technology.

  • Existential Threat: Israel perceives a nuclear-armed Iran as an unacceptable risk to its national security.
  • Nuclear Ambiguity: Despite claiming peaceful intentions, Iran’s nuclear program has raised concerns due to its lack of full transparency.
  • Red Lines: Netanyahu has repeatedly articulated “red lines” regarding Iran’s nuclear progress, the crossing of which could trigger military action.

Regional Power Dynamics and Proxy Warfare

Beyond its nuclear ambitions, iran’s destabilizing activities in the region also contribute to the threat assessment. Iran’s support for proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and various militias in Syria and Iraq has fueled regional conflicts and heightened tensions with Israel. These groups often engage in attacks against Israel or its allies, further exacerbating the security situation.

  • Hezbollah: Iran’s primary proxy in Lebanon, posing a significant threat to northern Israel with its large arsenal of rockets and missiles.
  • Hamas: Iran provides financial and military support to Hamas, the ruling entity in Gaza, which engages in periodic conflicts with israel.
  • Syria: Iran’s military presence in Syria, aimed at supporting the Assad regime, is viewed by Israel as a strategic threat.

geopolitical Chessboard: Alliances and Deterrence

Israel’s strategic calculus also involves assessing the broader geopolitical landscape. This includes the strength of its alliances, particularly with the United States, and the efficacy of its deterrence strategy. A perceived weakening of U.S. commitment to regional security or a failure of deterrence could possibly embolden Israel to act unilaterally.

  • U.S. Relationship: The strength of the U.S.-Israel alliance is a critical factor in Israel’s decision-making.
  • Deterrence: Israel seeks to deter Iran through a combination of military strength, intelligence capabilities, and diplomatic pressure.
  • International Sanctions: The effectiveness of international sanctions in curbing Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities also influences Israel’s decisions.
Factor Impact on Decision
Iran’s Nuclear Progress Primary driver; perceived existential threat
Regional Activities Fuels tensions; proxy warfare
U.S. Support Critical ally; shapes strategic calculus
International Sanctions Influences effectiveness of non-military options

The “Now” Factor: Timing Considerations

The timing of a potential strike is crucial and influenced by a variety of factors. These include assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, regional stability, and the international political climate. Key considerations include:

  • Window of Prospect: Israel might perceive a limited window of opportunity to strike before Iran reaches a point of no return in its nuclear program.
  • Regional Instability: Escalating regional tensions or conflicts could create a pretext or justification for military action.
  • International Alignment: The degree of international support or understanding for Israeli action could influence the timing of a strike.

Domestic Political Calculus

Domestic political considerations also play a role in Netanyahu’s decision-making. A perceived need to demonstrate strength, consolidate political power, or divert attention from domestic challenges could potentially influence the timing of a strike.

  • Public Opinion: Public opinion in Israel regarding the Iranian threat and the need for military action is a significant factor.
  • Coalition Stability: The stability of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition could influence his willingness to take risks.
  • Political Legacy: Netanyahu’s desire to leave a lasting legacy as a defender of Israel could also factor into his decision-making.

Military Capabilities and Strategic Planning

Israel possesses a elegant military and has likely developed detailed plans for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. These plans would involve:

  • Intelligence Gathering: Extensive intelligence on Iran’s nuclear sites, defenses, and vulnerabilities.
  • Air Superiority: The need to establish air superiority over Iranian airspace to ensure the success of the mission.
  • Target Selection: Careful selection of targets to maximize the damage to Iran’s nuclear program while minimizing collateral damage.

Potential Targets: A Closer look

Identifying potential targets is a critical component of any military plan. While specific details are classified, it is reasonable to assume that the following sites would be high on the list:

  • Natanz: A key uranium enrichment facility located deep underground.
  • Fordow: Another uranium enrichment facility, also located underground for protection.
  • Arak: A heavy water reactor that could potentially be used to produce plutonium.
  • Parchin: A military complex suspected of being involved in nuclear weapons research.

Risks and Consequences of Military Action

A military strike on Iran would carry significant risks and potential consequences:

  • Retaliation: Iran could retaliate against Israel directly or through its proxies, leading to a wider regional conflict.
  • International Condemnation: Israel could face international condemnation for launching a preemptive strike.
  • Escalation: the conflict could escalate beyond the region, potentially involving other major powers.

Furthermore, the economic consequences of such a strike would be far-reaching, impacting global oil prices, trade routes, and financial markets. The humanitarian cost, both in Iran and the surrounding region, would also be significant.

Option Strategies: Diplomacy and Sanctions

While military action remains a possibility, Israel also pursues alternative strategies to counter the Iranian threat. These include:

  • Diplomacy: engaging in diplomatic efforts to isolate Iran and negotiate a new nuclear agreement.
  • Sanctions: Imposing economic sanctions to pressure iran to curb its nuclear program and regional activities.
  • Cyber Warfare: Using cyberattacks to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities.

Case Study: The Stuxnet Virus

The Stuxnet virus, believed to have been developed by the United States and Israel, provides a compelling example of cyber warfare. This malware targeted Iran’s nuclear centrifuges, causing significant damage and delaying its nuclear program.This case study demonstrates the potential effectiveness of non-kinetic options in addressing the Iranian threat.

First-Hand Experience: Living Under the Threat

For Israelis living in close proximity to the Lebanese border or within range of rockets from Gaza, the threat from Iran and its proxies is a constant reality. The psychological impact of living under the potential for attack is significant, shaping public opinion and influencing political discourse. Many israelis feel that decisive action is necessary to ensure their long-term security and well-being.

City Proximity to Border Potential Threat
Haifa Relatively close to lebanon Hezbollah rocket attacks
Tel Aviv Central Israel Long-range rockets from Gaza
Sderot Close to Gaza Frequent rocket attacks from Hamas

Benefits and Practical Tips for Remaining Vigilant

While the prospect of military action can be unsettling, ther are practical steps that individuals and communities can take to enhance their preparedness and resilience:

  • Stay Informed: Follow credible news sources and stay updated on the latest developments in the region.
  • Emergency preparedness: Prepare an emergency kit with essential supplies and develop a family emergency plan.
  • Community Resilience: Participate in community preparedness programs and support local emergency response efforts.

Ultimately, the decision of whether to strike Iran is a complex one, weighing potential benefits against significant risks. Benjamin Netanyahu, like any Israeli leader, must carefully consider the geopolitical landscape, domestic political dynamics, and military capabilities while striving to ensure the security and well-being of the Israeli people.

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