Northern Lights Forecast: Viewing Guide for Friday Night’s Aurora
Observers along the northern U.S. Border may have a chance to witness the aurora borealis this Friday night, May 15, 2026. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Kp index of four has been issued, suggesting that the lights could be “quite pleasing to look at” for those in the right locations.
While the probability of sightings remains relatively low for most of the continental United States, the forecast provides a window of opportunity for enthusiasts in specific northern regions. NOAA does not currently forecast any significant geomagnetic storm impacts for Friday, which may limit the intensity of the display.
Where to Watch: Best Locations for Sightings
The aurora is most likely to be visible in areas with minimal light pollution near the northern border. Based on current NOAA projections, observers in the following regions should keep a lookout:
- Northeastern Washington
- The northern tip of Idaho
- Northern Montana
- Much of North Dakota
- Northern Minnesota
- The northernmost stretches of Wisconsin
- Michigan’s Upper Peninsula
As is standard for these events, Alaska remains the most reliable location for viewing strong auroral activity.
Optimal Viewing Conditions and Timing
To maximize your chances of a successful sighting, timing and environmental conditions are critical. Expert advice suggests focusing on the following factors:
Dark Skies and Moon Phases
Light pollution and moonlight are the primary obstacles to viewing the aurora. Friday’s conditions are exceptionally favorable. the moon is in a waning crescent phase, with only 2% visibility. This ensures much darker skies, which are ideal for spotting the faint glow of the northern lights.
The Best Time to Look
Auroral activity often peaks during the late-night hours. Observers should aim to view the sky between 10 p.m. And 2 a.m., when activity levels are typically at their highest.
Tips for Photographing the Aurora
Capturing the aurora requires more than just pointing a camera at the sky. Whether you are using a smartphone or a professional DSLR, follow these guidelines to improve your results:
- Smartphone Users: Avoid using a flash, as it will not capture the sky. Instead, utilize “night mode” to allow for longer exposure times.
- Stability: Use a tripod to prevent camera shake during long exposures.
- Manual Settings: If using a dedicated camera, shoot with a low aperture to let in as much light as possible.
The Solar Cycle Context
The current level of auroral activity is a byproduct of the sun’s ongoing solar cycle. The sun reached the peak of its 11-year solar cycle in 2024, a period that produced some of the most intense northern lights displays seen in the last 500 years. As the cycle progresses, the frequency and intensity of these geomagnetic events are expected to gradually decrease.
Key Takeaways for Observers
- Forecast Intensity: A Kp index of four is expected, offering potentially pleasing displays.
- Primary Locations: Focus on the northernmost borders of Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
- Ideal Conditions: A 2% visible waning crescent moon provides excellent dark-sky conditions.
- Optimal Window: Aim for sightings between 10 p.m. And 2 a.m.