A North Atlantic disturbance is entering the Center-western Mediterranean and,already from today,extended cloudiness involves most of the Center-north. It is the start of a disturbed phase that will culminate on Wednesday, September 10th, when bad weather will reach maximum intensity on different Italian regions.
Areas more at risk according to ECMWF (index EFI)
Table of Contents
The maps of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) highlight the possibility of rainfall of remarkable character in:
Tyrrhenian regions: Tuscany, Lazio, Campania;
Sardinia;
Adriatic band between romagna and Marche;
Friuli venezia Giulia.
In these areas the accumulations may be well beyond the seasonal rule, with localized hydraulic and hydrogeological critical issues.
“Atmospheric river” coming: the role of Water vapor
the Water vapour Flux measures the amount of water vapor transported to the troposphere and its direction. the model indicates maximums from the sud-ovest, typical of cyclonic libeccio: the wet flow, impacting the Apennine, can transform into abundant and persistent rains with the risk of storms in the sectors exposed.
Water content in column
the parameter Total column Water (acqua precipitabile) is not a direct prediction of rain, but indicates how much humidity is available for rainfall. Values exceptionally high expected between Tyrrhenian and High Adriatic increase the probability of Intense showers and accumulations concentrated in a few hours.
!Precipitable water 10 September