Cognizant Classic 2026: Long Shots and a Shifting PGA Tour Landscape

The 2026 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, formerly known as the Honda Classic, marks the start of the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing. Held at PGA National, a course renowned for its difficulty and tendency to produce unexpected winners, this year’s tournament unfolds against a backdrop of significant changes to the PGA Tour schedule and a field diminished by recent withdrawals.

PGA National: A Course for Upsets

PGA National is known for its volatility. Historically, the tournament hasn’t always favored top-ranked players. Five of the last ten winners posted final scores of 10-under par or worse, with Sungjae Im winning the 2020 Honda Classic at 6-under. However, the last two winners, Joe Highsmith and Austin Eckroat, both achieved their first PGA Tour victories at this event, finishing at 17-under and 19-under respectively. Five of the last seven iterations of the tournament have resulted in a maiden victory for the champion.

A Changing Tournament Landscape

The Cognizant Classic finds itself in a precarious position as the PGA Tour undergoes schedule revisions. Recent changes, including the introduction of the Signature Event model and the movement of The Players Championship to March, have left the tournament sandwiched between higher-purse events, impacting the strength of the field. This year, the tournament is missing several key players, including Ben Griffin, Jacob Bridgeman, and Adam Scott, who withdrew on Monday, February 23rd.

Long Shot Potential

Despite the absence of star power, the tournament setup lends itself to potential upsets. Shane Lowry and Ryan Gerard are co-favorites, priced at 17/1, but the course’s difficulty and the lighter field open the door for long-shot contenders. Here are a few players to watch:

Lee Hodges (90/1)

Lee Hodges returns to PGA National with a mixed history. Whereas he experienced a setback last year with a rib injury sustained near the course, he has two top-15 finishes in three starts at PGA National. Despite recent missed cuts, Hodges has shown flashes of strong form with a T4 and T6 finish in previous outings.

Billy Horschel (96/1)

Billy Horschel, a former Florida Gator, has a strong track record at PGA National, with three top-10 finishes and only one missed cut since 2018. Despite a sluggish start to 2026, his familiarity with the course and positive strokes gained numbers at the venue make him a potentially valuable pick.

Sam Ryder (120/1)

Sam Ryder boasts a consistent record at PGA National, having played the course multiple times without missing a cut. He has two top-10 finishes in five appearances and solid strokes gained data, making him a compelling long-shot option.

Looking Ahead

The 2026 Cognizant Classic presents a unique opportunity for players seeking their first PGA Tour victory. As the PGA Tour navigates a period of change, tournaments like this one will be crucial in identifying emerging talent and providing exciting competition. The tournament’s future remains uncertain, but the potential for upsets and the challenging course conditions ensure an intriguing week of golf.