The economist Juan Carlos de Pablo shared his view on the current situation of the exchange market and explained why the official dollar continues to fall. The currency is going through a moment of calm in the exchange market and this week it closed at $1420 for salewhich is equivalent to its lowest value in three months.
In dialogue with The Voice Livethe specialist was consulted about the drop in the price of the dollar in a context where the Central Bank (BCRA) continues to accumulate reserves. In this regard, De Pablo was forceful: “It is a problem of supply and demand. If the Central Bank were not buying reserves, the dollar would fall even faster”.
“The first explanation you have today for the purchase of reserves by the Central Bank is, precisely, to avoid larger falls“he noted. To explain this phenomenon, the analyst identified three sources of selling pressure that flood the currency market. On the one hand, the liquidation of exporters and the entry of investors; on the other, an actor who has gained relevance: the provinces.
The economist explained that the provincial states are taking on debt through bond issue “dollar linked”which generates a additional supply of greenbacks that ends up putting downward pressure on the price. “Unlike what happened at other times, where the private sector had too many dollars and demanded pesos, here there seems to be an issue of dollar supply,” he pointed out.
The mystery of inflation that does not subside despite the stability of the dollar
Regarding the relationship between the low dollar and the fight against inflationthe economist was cautious: “Doesn’t seem to help much from the resultsalthough everything could be worse. “If the dollar was higher, life would be more difficult.”
He used the analogy of the television series ‘Dr. House’ to explain that the Argentine economy presents unclear symptoms. “We have to discover what they are due to. The question is why do we have this inflation rate if the Government says ‘I am not issuing’ and the dollar is falling“, he stated, in a way of suggesting that defining this diagnosis is the key to the current moment.
Faithful to his critical style with predictive models, From Paul He once again attacked those who try to anticipate what will happen to prices in the immediate future. “I don’t make predictions, so I don’t know and I make fun of those who make predictions with decimals”, he stated.
What De Pablo said about activity level and his advice on using credit cards
De Pablo then extended his analysis to activity level and recognized that the economy is going through a period of stagnation which has already accumulated almost half a year. Nevertheless, highlighted the “heterogeneity” of the situation: while some sectors suffer, others adapt to new forms of consumption.
In his opinion, sectors are not abstract entities, but “human beings making decisions,” and he stressed that the way we buy is changing drastically, with e-commercewhich forces entrepreneurs to look for new solutions that leave traditional structures behind.
Finally, De Pablo closed his analysis with practical advice on the use of the credit card in this context. He recalled that the interest rate on financing with plastics is the highest in the financial system, not only in Argentina but worldwide.
His advice was pragmatic: use the credit card as a means of payment, not as a financing method. “Using a credit card because ‘you can’t get there’ is the best way to mortgage your future. As unpleasant as it may be, it is preferable to get together with your family and decide what you are not going to do this month because there is no money, rather than paying the minimum on the card,” he concluded.
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date: 2026-02-15 03:20:00