Hawaii Braces for Further Flooding as Kona Storms Compound Disaster with Wildfire Risks

The Hawaiian Islands are preparing for another round of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, less than a week after a significant storm impacted the region. While the current storm is expected to be less severe than the previous one, forecasters warn that already saturated ground conditions increase the risk of rapid runoff and flooding. Much of Hawaii remains under a flood watch, effective through March 22, 6:00 PM HST.

Recent Rainfall and Impacts

Between March 10 and 16, 2026, some areas of Maui received over 5 feet of rain. Haleakalā crater, near the island’s summit, recorded approximately 33 inches of rainfall in just 24 hours. The recent storms have caused significant disruption, including roadway failures and, in one instance, the collapse of a condominium building in Kihei [National Weather Service Honolulu].

Kona Storms and Their Unique Risks

The anticipated rainfall is attributed to a kona storm, a weather pattern that brings heavy precipitation to typically dry, leeward areas of the Hawaiian Islands. Unlike typical rainfall generated by trade winds and orographic lift, kona storms draw moisture from the south, impacting areas usually sheltered from rain. These storms form due to changes in the jet stream, creating a low-pressure system northwest of the islands.

Compounding Effects: Wildfires and Flooding

The regions most affected by kona storms are also those increasingly prone to wildfires. This creates a dangerous cycle: rainfall on fire-affected areas leads to runoff and erosion, exacerbating flooding and increasing the risk of mudslides. Burn scars from wildfires, such as those in Lahaina, contribute to debris flow and sedimentation.

Joseph Pluta, a Lahaina resident who lost his home in the 2023 wildfires, described the current situation as a “real mess,” with debris flowing down burn scars and impacting homes and streets.

Vulnerability and Infrastructure Challenges

The proliferation of nonnative, flammable grasses on former sugar and pineapple plantations has increased wildfire risk. These grasses also contribute to flooding by reducing water absorption and increasing runoff. Areas like Lahaina are particularly vulnerable due to their fire history and existing floodplains [National Weather Service Honolulu].

Maui County is working to improve drainage systems and infrastructure resilience, but officials acknowledge that fully eliminating flooding during extreme events is financially infeasible. The Department of Public Works is staging equipment and clearing debris in preparation for the incoming storm [National Weather Service Honolulu].

Current Conditions and Forecast

As of March 19, 2026, at Kahului Airport (PHOG), conditions are mostly cloudy with a temperature of 75°F (24°C), 84% humidity and southwest winds at 15 mph. A flood watch remains in effect. The forecast for tonight includes showers, with a chance of thunderstorms after 2 am. Friday is expected to bring showers and breezy conditions, with a high near 83°F. Showers and possible thunderstorms are also forecast for Saturday and Sunday [National Weather Service].