The Shifting Middle East Balance of Power: How Israel and the U.S. Have Weakened Iran
Over the past two and a half years, and escalating dramatically with recent strikes, a systematic degradation of Iran’s influence across the Middle East has unfolded. This shift, triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on Israel and culminating in a large-scale offensive by the United States and Israel in February 2026, represents a transformative moment in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
The Catalyst: October 7th and its Aftermath
The October 7th attacks by Hamas, a Palestinian militant group backed by Iran, served as a pivotal turning point. According to reports, Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages during the initial assault CNN. Israel’s subsequent military response in Gaza, which has resulted in over 72,000 Palestinian deaths as of March 2, 2026, according to the Gaza Health Ministry CFR, provided Israel with justification for a stronger stance against Iran and its regional proxies.
Escalation and Direct Confrontation
The conflict quickly expanded beyond Gaza, drawing in other Iran-sponsored groups. In Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory airstrikes and escalating into a full-scale war that was temporarily halted by a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire in November 2024. Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and conduct near-daily airstrikes. Hezbollah suffered significant losses, including the deaths of key leaders and the destruction of much of its arsenal.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, also supported by Iran, joined the conflict by targeting vessels in the Red Sea, leading to responses from U.S. Warships and the Israeli military.
A Shift in Israeli Strategy
Analysts note that Israel abandoned its long-held status quo and sought to fundamentally alter the regional balance of power. This culminated in a surprise offensive in June 2025 aimed at disrupting Iran’s nuclear program during ongoing negotiations for a nuclear deal. The ensuing twelve-day war involved bombing attacks on Iran’s energy industry and Defense Ministry headquarters CFR.
The February 2026 Offensive and Khamenei’s Death
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran. President Trump stated the operation aimed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime CFR. Israeli strikes reportedly killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while U.S. Strikes targeted military sites in Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Qum, and Tabriz. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on Israel and U.S. Facilities across the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
Proxy Reactions and Iran’s Diminished Control
Despite the escalation, Iran’s proxy groups largely remained on the sidelines during the direct attacks on Iran. Experts suggest this reflects a focus on survival and a growing autonomy among these groups, indicating a weakening of Iran’s control over its network of allies. Hezbollah, although, issued statements condemning the attacks and hinted at potential involvement, subsequently launching missiles into Israel – the first such action in over a year.
Iran-backed militias in Iraq reportedly held meetings two months prior to the February 2026 offensive to plan a response in case of an attack on Iran, focusing on targeting U.S. Forces and interests in Iraq and Jordan.
Looking Ahead
The events since October 7, 2023, have fundamentally altered the balance of power in the Middle East. The extent of the long-term consequences remains uncertain, but the weakening of Iran and its proxies is a significant development with far-reaching implications for regional stability. The future actions of Iran’s allies and the broader geopolitical response will be critical in shaping the region’s trajectory.