Iran-USA Negotiations: Time Gained, War Postponed?

Last-minute diplomacy in the shadow of escalation: Washington and Tehran are negotiating secretly. Can a deal still prevent war? An analysis.

The first round was completed: last Friday negotiated Iran and the USA on a possible agreement. Most recently – after the laying American aircraft carrier – the situation escalated enormously.

So far no major information has been released. The negotiations were probably preliminary discussions with the aim of bringing the two widely divergent negotiating positions closer together. Trump called the conversations were meaningless “very good”.

The “good start” (Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi) will soon follow consultations in the home countries be continued – an exact time remained unclear. The situation remains volatile: like the orientalist Walter Posch classifiedboth sides acted prudently, but a military escalation could occur “at any time”.

This was demonstrated not least by one incident: the US military shot recently an Iranian drone that had – whether accidentally or intentionally – approached an aircraft carrier. Are the negotiations simply delaying the Big Bang?

Arab Switzerland

The location of the conversations is hardly surprising. Due to a foreign policy based on compensation, the Sultanate of Oman is considered “Switzerland of Arabia”. The foundation stone for this was laid in Muscat in 2013 Nuclear agreement called JCPOA. Nevertheless, Omani diplomacy successfully mediated for US interests: Oman threw used his political weight to act as a humanitarian mediator to get US citizens imprisoned in Iran to freedom.

2006 signed Oman and the USA signed a free trade agreement, which made market access easier for US companies and eliminated tariffs. Since then, the USA has become the country’s second largest investor and act also as our closest military partner.

Omani forces operate with imported US weapons; As part of an interoperability agreement concluded in 2019, Muscat allowed possible US use of Omani bases if necessary. As Neighbors and based on deep economic ties towards Tehran (energy partnership, trade flows), Oman itself has no interest in escalation.

Symbol of the region

At the same time condemned numerous Arab states are calling for a US-Iran war, which would endanger regional stability. Even if the partnership with the Islamic Republic is not in the foreground might have stoodbut rather to prevent Israeli supremacy, the contribution is important.

With an end to theocracy, Israel’s extreme right-wing government would lose its key regional counterpart. The Netanyahu administration throbs takes a “hard” line towards Washington and is generally critical of negotiations. Tel Aviv wants to expand the talks beyond the Iranian nuclear program and – based on the experience of the Twelve-Day War in June – also implement a comprehensive disarmament of conventional weapons systems, especially ballistic missiles.

Threat Utility

Currently being discussedwhether the US line can be influenced by Israel. If you take the MAGA rhetoric and the national security strategy seriously – with its orientation towards an imperial final battle against the “systematic rival” China – everyone should Influencing US politics through a well-networked one Zionist lobbythe path of negotiations should be pursued further.

But also Tel Aviv uses the supposed threat: academic Studies provethat Israeli politics – often outside of a real threat situation – uses Iran in various ways in domestic and foreign policy.

According to this analysis by investigative journalist Gareth Porter is supported, serves the Iran factor of strengthening ties to the USA, gigantic militarism and domestic political restrictions. In this respect, it remains questionable whether Tel Aviv is prepared to eliminate its legitimizing justification before asserting all of its interests in the Gaza Strip, Syria or Lebanon.

Crucial question and maximum demands

Nevertheless, peace is on a knife’s edge: While the USA (and Israel) in particular plan to stop or drastically reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, force access for international inspections and want to achieve far-reaching restrictions in the missile program, Iran is demanding mutual (!) security guarantees, the dismantling of the sanctions that are strangling the country and a departure from US policy of ultimatums.

The positions are therefore far apart, and the Iranian nuclear program is the crucial question of the process. After the last international available data – since June 2025, Tehran has indefinitely suspended cooperation with the IAEA and associated control inspections based on the attack on the country – the country had 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.

This means that Iran is far from having the necessary weapons-grade material (90 percent). Contrary to the politically mobilizing claims of Trump or Netanyahu, Iran was, after Analyzes of the US intelligence servicesstill in June 2025 years away from building an atomic bomb. For months asserts Iranian policy is like a prayer wheel that no new uranium will be enriched and that as a sovereign country they will only reserve the right to civil nuclear use.

Even if Israel itself only works in an insignificant IAEA research facility Access grantedone also did not join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a policy of “nuclear ambiguity” is pursuedTel-Aviv demands that the uranium be transported from Iran. There could be movement here: Moscow bot again to keep Iran’s uranium stocks in the country.

Where are you going?

In the spirit of a peaceful world, it is gratifying that a first round took place without any scandal. Nevertheless, it is considered unlikely that an agreement will be reached in the near future – based on the maximum demands that still exist. Both sides primarily gained time.

Tehran cannot have any interest in war despite massively arming its navy with swarms of drones, the threat of mining the coast and Russian-Chinese purchases of arms (surface-to-air missiles, S-400 system). No military victory would be conceivable against Tel Aviv and Washington.

Rather, the state’s leadership, which is in shock, will be looking for a certain balance: if the republic wants to survive and not perish due to periodic protests based on economic hardship, some of the sanctions must be lifted and room for maneuver expanded. At the same time – in addition to the Arab states – the close Brics partners Russia and China also have no interest in military escalation.

It is likely that Iran will sacrifice its nuclear program even as it continues to upgrade its conventional weapons in order to drive the enemy costs of an attack (invasion) to incalculable heights.

While the USA is likely to rely on a combination of economic and military pressure, Israel sees the time for military intervention came long ago. There can only be diplomatic solutions and a frozen, limited conflict if the USA agrees to one Israeli line refuse.