## NFL Week 11 Picks: Commanders, Packers, texans, Bears, Steelers & Panthers to Cover
The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 11 slate.
sunday
Commanders +2.5 over Dolphins
The Commanders should be able to win this game just by running the ball, which is pretty much their only path to victory while Jayden Daniels is out. Washington is among the worst passing offenses in the league right now, but also facing a team that is giving up 4.9 yards per carry (fifth worst). washington is No. 19 in overall DVOA, ahead of the Dolphins (No. 23).
Packers -7 over GIANTS
This line actually whent from 7.5 to 7 with the news that Jameis Winston would be starting for the Giants. I don’t understand that. Winston makes this game more volatile, but that doesn’t necessarily mean better.
I think he has been a bit glorified as an upgrade over Russell wilson, but that isn’t reality. In 12 appearances (seven starts) for the Browns last year, Winston had 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.6 (32nd of 59 qualified quarterbacks).
Texans -6 over TITANS
This line has come down inside of a touchdown, just low enough for me to bet on it.Houston is the No. 8 ranked team based on DVOA, while the Titans rank 32nd. The texans are favored by 12.5 on my model, but that number is contingent on CJ Stroud starting.With Davis Mills under center, I project a five-point difference in the spread, so we are still get a solid number here.texans win by a touchdown.
Bears +3 over VIKINGS
My model has Chicago favored by three points in this game, but I still understand while they are underdogs. The Bears have won a ton of one possession games. DVOA hates these two teams, ranking the Bears 25th and Vikings 22nd. I have been a Caleb Williams fan his whole career, and have to take him here against J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings.
STEELERS -5.5 over bengals
The Bengals’ defense without Trey Hendrickson is arguably the worst in NFL history. I think we’re getting a discount on the Steelers this week after a loss to the Chargers.They’ve made some serious changes on the defensive side of the ball, both in scheme and personnel.The Steelers have TJ Watt and don’t need to blitz. Joe Flacco cannot deal with pressure: Flacco has 49 dropbacks with pressure, and only 17 of them have ended in a completion (41.5 percent completion rate). Yuck!
Panthers +3.5 over FALCONS
Atlanta’s defense has continued to let down after playing a bi
NFL Week 11 Picks: chiefs, Lions, and Cowboys Favored by betting Expert
here are NFL betting picks for Week 11, provided by Erich Richter of the New York Post, along with analysis and season records. Richter, a profitable bettor with a 30.15% return on investment since 2022,focuses on value and leverages a statistical model alongside his own insights.
Chiefs -4 over BRONCOS
Despite the Denver Broncos boasting the NFL’s top defense in yards allowed per play, Richter favors the Kansas City Chiefs in this divisional matchup.While his model views the game as a pick ’em, he believes the superior quarterback play will be the deciding factor. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs benefited from a two-week readiness period. Richter also notes a potential lean towards the under, but ultimately sides with Kansas City.
Lions +2.5 over EAGLES
Richter is backing the Detroit lions as 2.5-point underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles. He highlights Detroit’s recent offensive surge, ranking sixth in yards per play over the last three games, and the eagles’ struggles against the run (21st in yards per rush attempt allowed). The shift in play-calling duties to Dan Campbell is also seen as a positive, with increased use of motion and play-action expected.
Cowboys -3.5 over RAIDERS
The Dallas Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points against the Las Vegas Raiders,a pick supported by Richter’s model which projects a four-point spread.He points to the Raiders’ low DVOA ranking (No.28) and the Cowboys’ advantage in key position matchups. The contrast in quarterback play – Dak Prescott versus Aiden O’Connell – further strengthens the case for Dallas.The Cowboys also excel in blocking, an area where the raiders struggle.
Last week: 6-7
season: 66-71
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter brings a unique blend of analytical rigor and practical betting experiance to the New York Post. He holds a Brazilian jiu-Jitsu blue belt, but is considered an expert in MMA betting, and has demonstrated consistent profitability in the NFL player prop market over the past two seasons, achieving a 30.15% return on investment since 2022. https://nypost.com/author/erich-richter/