Target cost parity: economics of one-step PtL
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Invezz: The price of sustainable aviation fuel is still 3-6 times higher than fossil aviation fuels. Your new demonstration plant at Oxford Airport has just started producing real PtL SAF – when do you realistically expect OXCCU’s fuel to reach price parity wiht the conventional A-1 jet?
Andrew Symes: Today, advanced SAF is typically around 5-10x the price of fossil kerosene fuel. Our mission is to reduce that to about 2× fossil jet fuel, which we believe is achievable with the right technology and scale.
Independent third-party techno-economic modeling shows that our one-step process can reduce CAPEX by ~50% and cost per ton by ~25% compared to customary routes.
At this level, the impact on ticket prices is moderate and manageable.Achieving true price parity with jet A-1 would require further reductions in raw material and green power costs as well as greater scale.
Aramco ventures
Invezz: Aramco Ventures just co-led your $28 million Series B. How does it feel when one of the world’s largest oil companies relies on a technology that could make their core product obsolete?
Andrew Symes: Aramco Ventures became an investor in OXCCU in 2023, reinvesting in the company’s Series B.
The Series B round was co-led by new investors Safran and Orlen, along with aramco and other aviation and energy companies including IAG and Eni.
From the beginning we wanted to get in touch with the existing industry.
The partners we work with recognize that aviation needs a scalable solution to reduce emissions and can be part of that solution.
OXCCU: Power-to-Liquids and the Future of SAF
We’re moving out of the hype phase and into early implementation. power-to-liquids is now supported by regulation, sub-mandates and real additional interest rates, especially in Europe.
Having mentioned that, it’s still early. The construction of commercial facilities requires time, capital and technical effort.
Success will determine who can deliver low-cost fuels at scale over the next decade.
Instead: They have spoken of producing kerosene on a large scale for “a few pence a litre”. Give us your boldest prediction: What will the production cost of OXCCU per liter be in 2030 and 2035?
Andrew Symes: our stated goal is to reduce the advanced SAF from today’s 5-10x fossil kerosene to approximately 2x fossil kerosene using true waste carbon feedstocks and simplified process design.
Future of the SAF
Instead: A large part of the SAF still comes from used cooking oil and animal fats.When do you think direct CO2-to-jet fuel routes like yours will replace HEFA as the dominant SAF route?
Andrew Symes: HEFA plays a crucial role today, but is fundamentally limited by land use and the availability of raw materials. Mere use of oils cannot meet long-term demand on a large scale without serious environmental compromises.
We believe that CO and/or CO with H2 to form SAF will dominate over iron-based Fischer-Tropsch.
The flexibility of working directly with CO2 as well as CO makes it applicable for converting: gasified solid carbon waste, reformed biogas as well as CO2 and green H2.
These waste-based pathways are essential to achieving high blending levels in the 2030s and beyond.
As mandates increase towards 2040 and 2050, these routes will become increasingly dominant as they are not limited by the same land restrictions as HEFA SAF.
The reason investors are getting involved is that cost and complexity are the real hurdles for SAF. Our approach is to simplify existing routes.
By avoiding intermediate products such as carbon monoxide via RWGS or methanol,we can reduce capital intensity and improve hydrogen efficiency at the cost reduction.