Six years ago, when the U.S.Supreme Court upheld highly partisan state election maps in North Carolina and Maryland – ruling that federal courts cannot block states from drawing up maps that favor one party over the other – one of the court’s liberal justices issued a warning.
“If left unchecked, gerrymanders like the ones here may irreparably damage our system of government,” Associate Justice Elena Kagan wrote in a dissent.
Kagan argued that Republicans in North Carolina and Democrats in Maryland – the two examples before the court – had rigged elections in a way that “deprived citizens of the most essential of their constitutional rights,” “debased and dishonored our democracy” and turned “upside-down the core American idea that all governmental power derives from the people.”
“ask yourself,” Kagan said as she recounted what had happened in each state: “Is this how American democracy is supposed to work?”
That’s the question Californians are now weighing as they decide how, or whether, to vote on Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to scrap congressional maps drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission and replace them with maps drawn by legislators to favor Democrats through 2030.Democrats don’t deny that the measure is a purposeful attempt to dilute GOP voting power.
From the start, they’ve argued that the point of redistricting is to weaken Republicans’ voting power in California – a move they justify on the grounds that it is indeed a temporary fix to offset similar partisan gerrymandering by texas Republicans. This summer, President Trump upped the ante, pressing texas to rejigger maps to shore up the GOP’s narrow House majority ahead of the 2026 election.Experts say opponents of Proposition 50 have no viable federal legal challenge against the new maps on the basis that they disenfranchise a large chunk of California Republicans. Even since the 2019 U.S. Supreme Court decision rucho vs. Common Cause, complaints of partisan gerrymandering have no path in federal court.
Already, Proposition 50 has survived challenges in state court and is unlikely to be successfully challenged if passed, said richard L.Hasen, professor of law and director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA School of Law.
“If you’re a Republican in california, or you’re a Democrat in Texas, you’re about to get a lot less portrayal in Congress,” Hasen said. “I don’t think there’s anything you can do about that.”
If Californians vote in favor of the measure on Tuesday, the number of Republicans in the state’s House – nine of 52 total members – would likely be reduced by five. That could mean Republicans have less than 10% of California’s congressional representation even though Trump won 38% of the 2024 vote.
“All of this is unconstitutional, but the federal courts aren’t available to help,” said Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Law School.
“Every time you redraw a district specifically to protect some candidates and punish others,” Levitt said, “what you’re basically saying is it shouldn’t be up to the voters to weigh in on whether they think the candidates are doing a good job or not.”
Possible legal avenues
But even if the issue of partisan gerrymandering is blocked in federal courts, there are other potential legal avenues to challenge California’s new legislative maps.
One route would be to claim that Proposition 50 violates the California Constitution.
David A. Carrillo, executive director of the California Constitution Center at berkeley Law, said that if Proposition 50 passes, he expects a barrage of “see what sticks” lawsuits raising California constitutional claims. They stand little chance of success,he said.
“Voters created the redistricting commission,” he said. “what the voters c
Redistricting Battles Heat Up as Supreme Court Decision Looms
California, along with other states, is bracing for potential upheaval in its congressional maps following a Supreme Court case concerning redistricting and the Voting Rights Act. The outcome of the case, expected by June, could significantly impact the balance of power in Congress and reignite partisan battles over how electoral districts are drawn.
California’s Proposition 50 and the Current Landscape
California voters will decide on Proposition 50, which proposes establishing an independent commission to draw congressional districts. Currently, the state utilizes a commission for state legislative districts, but the congressional maps are drawn by the state legislature. Supporters of Proposition 50 argue it will remove partisan influence from the process. However,the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling could render the proposition’s impact uncertain.
“Whether that leaves any of California’s districts vulnerable-either in the current map or in the map if Prop. 50 passes-depends entirely on what [the Supreme Court] says,” explained political analyst Nicholas Levitt. “There are only nine people who know what they’ll actually say, and there are a lot of possibilities, some of which might affect California’s map pretty substantially, and some of which are unlikely to affect California’s map at all.”
the Potential for Republican Advantage
The redistricting battles aren’t limited to California. As states across the country consider redrawing maps,Democrats fear they could be disadvantaged if the Supreme Court rulings lean towards allowing more partisan gerrymandering.This could force democrats to win a majority of the popular vote – exceeding 50% – to secure a majority of seats in Congress.
Congressional Attempts at reform
Congress possesses the authority to curb partisan gerrymandering, but past attempts at reform have stalled. In 2022, the House of Representatives passed the Freedom to Vote Act, which aimed to prohibit mid-decade redistricting and block partisan map drawing. However, the bill was blocked in the Senate due to the filibuster rule.
A more focused proposal has emerged from republican Representative Kevin Kiley of California,whose district could be affected by Proposition 50. Kiley’s bill, supported by similar legislation from California Democrats, would ban mid-decade redistricting, effectively nullifying any newly drawn maps. Though,given the current political climate,its chances of passage are slim.
Looking Ahead: A “Race to the Bottom”?
Experts warn that without a resolution, the situation could worsen, especially if the Supreme Court weakens or overturns Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which protects minority voting rights.
“It may have to get worse before it gets better,” said election law expert Rick Hasen.He predicts a continued “race to the bottom” as states compete to draw maps favorable to their parties.
One potential path forward involves Democrats regaining control of Congress and the presidency, overcoming the filibuster, and enacting redistricting reform.
Ultimately, Levitt emphasizes the power of the electorate. “If we want to tell our representatives that we’re sick of this, we can,” he said. “There’s a lot that’s competing for voters’ attention. But that doesn’t mean that we don’t have agency here.”