Russia has officially begun “work” on the process of conducting nuclear tests, preparations for which appear to have begun as early as 2023.
Vladimir Putin announced the start of preparations for “full-fledged nuclear tests.” For now, the directive is officially limited to developing a plan that the government must draw up and present to the Security Council for approval, a move apparently intended to ensure collective accountability among Russia’s ruling elite once the green light is given.
The intention to resume actual nuclear tests first became clear two years ago when Moscow withdrew its ratification of the 1996 Complete Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTB) in November 2023.
Since then, Russia has almost certainly been conducting large-scale preparations for potential tests at its historic Nova Zemya test site, which operated between 1955 and 1990 and is located 900 km from Europe. During this period,132 nuclear detonations took place at the site,only 42 of which were underground. The rest were atmospheric or underwater. Among them is the detonation of the Tsar Bomba,a 58-megaton hydrogen device – the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated.
Since withdrawing from the CTBT,Russia has had no legal restrictions on conducting nuclear explosions. Though, one critically important question remains: how such a test would be conducted and whether Moscow still considers itself bound by the 1963 Treaty on the Ban on tests of Nuclear Weapons in the Atmosphere, in Space and Under Water, signed with the United States. This contract is for an indefinite period, but allows for withdrawal with three months’ notice.
the answer to that question will determine the type of test Russia can conduct.An underground detonation,such as,would have limited public impact: it would visually amount to little more than a flickering camera,as seen in the 1992 US underground tests.
A shallowly buried charge may cause a visible collapse of the ground, but little spectacle.