On Holding Navigates Growth and Market Expectations
Swiss sportswear brand On Holding AG reported record sales and improved profitability in 2025, yet its stock experienced a premarket dip on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, as investors assessed its 2026 guidance. Despite exceeding analyst estimates for the fourth quarter and full year, the company’s projected sales growth for 2026 fell slightly short of consensus expectations.
Record Sales and Profitability in 2025
On Holding’s fourth-quarter net sales reached 743.8 million Swiss francs ($946 million), a 30.6% increase in constant currencies, surpassing LSEG estimates of 723.5 million francs. Full-year sales exceeded 3 billion francs for the first time, slightly ahead of the estimated 2.99 billion francs. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 31.8% to 131 million francs, with a margin of 18.8%, also exceeding LSEG estimates of 112.4 million francs.
2026 Outlook and Market Reaction
The company anticipates net sales growth of at least 23% in constant currencies for 2026, translating to at least 3.44 billion francs at current exchange rates. However, this guidance is below the sell-side analyst consensus expectation of 3.7 billion francs. On projects an adjusted EBITDA margin between 18.5% and 19%.
Despite the positive 2025 results, On Holding shares were down 11% in premarket trading on March 3, 2026, reflecting investor reaction to the 2026 guidance.
Strategic Focus and Market Position
On is in the final year of its strategy to double sales to 3.55 billion francs and increase EBITDA margin to at least 18% by 2026, aiming to establish itself as “the most premium global sportswear brand.” The company has gained market share from established competitors like Nike and Adidas through innovative products and a focus on performance footwear and apparel.
Consumer Trends and Brand Identity
David Allemann, co-founder and executive chair of On, highlighted a “fundamental societal shift” where consumers prioritize health, longevity, and performance over traditional status symbols. He believes On is well-positioned to cater to this evolving consumer demand.
Regional Performance
The Asia-Pacific region demonstrated the strongest growth, with sales increasing by 85.1% in constant currencies. The Americas and EMEA regions experienced growth of 21.3% and 27.5%, respectively.
Roger Federer’s Investment and Brand Elevation
In 2019, Roger Federer invested $50 million for a 3% stake in On, and also collaborated on designing a line of tennis-inspired lifestyle sneakers called “The Roger.” This investment was described as “not traditional athlete sponsorship” by co-founder Olivier Bernhard. Federer’s investment has been credited with significantly boosting the brand’s profile and contributing to its success.
Analyst Perspectives
Some analysts suggest challenges may arise in 2026, and the stock’s valuation may not fully reflect these risks. Jefferies analyst Randal Konik cautioned that premium positioning alone may not be sufficient to sustain growth in a more competitive pricing environment.