Trump Faces Economic Headwinds as Iran Conflict Escalates Ahead of Midterms

Washington D.C. – U.S. President Donald Trump is confronting growing domestic political pressure as the conflict with Iran contributes to global economic instability. The joint U.S.-Israel war, initiated on February 28 with a strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , is increasingly viewed as a potential liability for Trump and the Republican Party in the lead-up to the November 6 midterm elections.

Rising Energy Prices Fuel Concerns

A primary source of concern is the surge in energy prices. Global crude oil prices have reached $100 per barrel, a level not seen in recent years, due to supply disruptions and the impact on global energy trade routes . This spike in prices threatens to increase the cost of living for American citizens.

Economic Impact Could Sway Voters

Todd Belt, a professor of political management at George Washington University, notes that foreign policy typically has limited influence on U.S. Midterm elections unless it directly affects the economic well-being of voters. “Typically foreign policy doesn’t play a big role in midterm elections, unless there’s a direct connection to how it makes people’s lives worse,” Belt stated .

Rising energy prices could be a significant factor, potentially triggering negative sentiment towards the current administration. This is particularly concerning for Trump and the Republican Party, which previously benefited from public dissatisfaction with economic conditions.

Midterm Elections as a Referendum

U.S. Midterm elections, held in the middle of a president’s term, are often viewed as a referendum on the incumbent’s performance. Historically, the president’s party often loses seats in Congress during these elections as voters seek to balance power. While midterm results cannot directly remove a president from office, they can significantly weaken their authority if the opposing party gains control of Congress.

Trump’s Approval Rating Declines

Recent surveys indicate a decline in Trump’s approval rating following the escalation of the conflict with Iran. As of March 9, 2026, Trump’s approval rating stood at 38%, with 59% disapproving .

Trump Defends Policy, Hints at Resolution

Despite the concerns, Trump continues to defend his military policy towards Iran, stating that rising oil prices are “a exceptionally small price to pay” for global security and preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons . Although, observers believe that a prolonged conflict and sustained high energy prices could worsen public sentiment.

Trump has stated the war against Iran will be “ended soon” and predicted a subsequent fall in global oil prices, claiming “we made great progress toward accomplishing our military objectives” . He also indicated that any decision on ending the war would be “mutual” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .

White House Considers Re-evaluation

A former senior administration official suggested that the White House may need to re-evaluate the scale of military operations if current market conditions persist or worsen .