US-Iran Tensions Escalate as Allies Hesitate to Secure Strait of Hormuz

Washington faces a challenge in securing international support for protecting oil shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting potential weaknesses in its strategy towards Iran. Despite escalating threats to merchant ships in the Gulf region following recent US and Israeli military actions, key allies have offered a lukewarm response to President Trump’s calls for assistance.

Allied Hesitation

President Trump has requested that countries including Britain, France, Japan, and China participate in escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan stated it had not received a formal request, while China has yet to respond. The US has also pressured the NATO alliance to turn into involved, with President Trump warning of a “very bad future” for the alliance if they do not participate. But, NATO’s geographic focus is Europe and North America, and the US has generally encouraged European countries to prioritize regional defense.

Limited European Readiness

European readiness remains limited. France has deployed eight warships to the eastern Mediterranean but is hesitant to enter the Strait of Hormuz until the conflict de-escalates. Britain is working to prepare its destroyers, including bringing HMS Dragon out of dry dock for immediate deployment.

US Strategy and Iranian Response

The US has focused its attacks on Iranian naval targets and missile facilities, but this strategy has not fully addressed asymmetric threats, particularly against civilian merchant ships. At least 16 ships have been attacked, leading many tankers to avoid the Strait of Hormuz altogether. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that escorting tankers might not be feasible until later in the month, following additional military operations.

Iran’s Capabilities and Preparedness

Despite limited conventional military options, Iran is expected to target US bases, allied countries, and merchant ships to exert pressure on the West. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reportedly prepared a multi-layered succession scenario, indicating readiness for a prolonged conflict. Iran possesses various small-scale attack options, including fast boats, aerial drones, and sea mines, with maritime drones proving particularly effective, as evidenced in a recent attack on a Thai tanker.

Concerns Over Lack of Coordination

Analysts assess that the lack of coordination and preparedness among allies risks expanding the conflict and increasing threats to global energy distribution channels. Without a clear strategy, US actions may exacerbate tensions without effectively mitigating the risks.

Source: This article is based on reporting from CNBC Indonesia, and supplemented with information from The Hill, The White House, PBS, and The New York Times.