Rising Travel Costs Amidst US-Israel-Iran Conflict

The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran is impacting global travel costs, particularly for routes to and from Asia and Australia. While the full extent of the price increases varies, travelers are facing higher fares and altered flight paths as airlines adjust to the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Disrupted Routes and Increased Fares

Travelers flying from Ireland to Asia and Australia are increasingly likely to avoid hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. This necessitates routing through European hubs and then onward to Asian destinations, adding complexity and cost to journeys. Flights on these routes are already approximately 20% more expensive than they were two weeks prior to the escalation of the conflict, and further increases are anticipated.

Fuel Costs Surge

The conflict has significantly driven up jet fuel prices. Before the conflict, prices ranged between $85 and $90 per barrel; they have now surged to between $150 and $200 per barrel. [CBS News] This increase in fuel costs is a major contributor to rising airfares.

Airline Responses

Qantas Airways and Air New Zealand have already announced fare increases directly attributable to the Middle East conflict. [AP News] The curtailment of flights in and out of the Middle East, hubs frequently used by both airlines, is a key factor.

Hedging Strategies and European Airlines

Aer Lingus and Ryanair, while contacted for comment, had not responded at the time of writing. However, both airlines have reportedly hedged a significant percentage of their fuel needs for the summer months at prices considerably below current market levels. Travel writer Eoghan Corry notes that a “goodly percentage” of Ryanair’s fuel is hedged at $69 per barrel, a strategy that may shield European travelers from the most dramatic price increases in the short term. [CBS News]

Impact on Short-Haul Flights

While long-haul routes are most affected, increased demand for short-haul flights to popular sun destinations in Southern Europe could also lead to price increases, potentially in the range of 10 to 20 percent.

Long-Term Outlook

The duration of the conflict will significantly shape the future of long-haul routes. If the conflict is prolonged or escalates, oil prices are expected to remain elevated, and aviation routes will continue to be disrupted. Approximately 100,000 people travel from Ireland to Australia and New Zealand annually, many utilizing Middle Eastern hubs. Disruptions to these hubs could necessitate longer, less appealing routes with multiple stops.

Tour Operator Impact

Tour operators, representing around 10% of travel business from Ireland, are expected to be less immediately impacted, as a substantial portion of their holidays for the coming months have already been sold.

The Irish Travel Agents Association president, Tom Randles, reported that, as of March 8, 2026, there were no fare increases from Ryanair or Aer Lingus on popular routes to Spain and Portugal, with seats available for around €100 each way mid-week. [CBS News]

whether to book flights now is uncertain, but prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the near future.