Global Progress and the Potential for Universal Prosperity
Despite a backdrop of contemporary crises, significant human progress has been made over the past century. While challenges remain, a vision of universal prosperity – where even the world’s poorest citizens enjoy a standard of living comparable to that of Switzerland – is increasingly attainable, driven by technological advancements and strategic investment.
A Century of Transformation
A hundred years ago, life was markedly different. Average global life expectancy hovered between 30 and 40 years and one in three children died before the age of five. Approximately 60% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, and only one-third were literate. Today, the global average life expectancy is 73 years, less than 10% of the population lives in extreme poverty, and nearly 90% are literate. Per capita income has increased sixfold since 1925.
Beyond Subsistence: The Empowerment Line
While progress in basic living standards is undeniable, the ability to live safely and with options remains a challenge for many. Approximately 4.7 billion people still live below what is termed the “empowerment line,” indicating a need for continued advancement.
A Vision for 2100: Abundance for All
A new vision proposes that by 2100, the world’s poorest could live as well as the Swiss do today – characterized by high incomes, long life expectancy, quality education, and strong social support networks. Achieving this would require a global GDP per capita growth of just 2.6% annually, slightly exceeding the 2.3% average of the last quarter-century.
The Role of Technology and Emerging Economies
With a projected global population of 12 billion (accounting for recovering fertility rates in some countries), the global economy could become 8.5 times larger than it is today. Advances in education, artificial intelligence, and other cutting-edge technologies make this goal viable. Much of this growth is expected to come from emerging economies, which can adopt existing technologies and invest in infrastructure.
Energy as a Key Ingredient
Economic growth hinges on energy. To increase opportunities, global energy generation needs to double or triple, with clean electricity production increasing thirtyfold. This can be achieved through large-scale deployment of existing technologies and continued innovation. China’s tenfold increase in solar, wind, and nuclear energy production over the last decade demonstrates the potential for rapid expansion. The United States also saw a significant increase in shale energy production over the past two decades.
Food Security for a Growing Population
Feeding a population of 12 billion is achievable without expanding land apply, through modest increases in agricultural yields – less than those achieved since the 1960s.
Resource Availability
The Earth possesses sufficient natural resources to support this expansion. For example, achieving abundance by 2100 would require 134 billion tons of steel. Known iron reserves total 230,000 million tons, with 88,000 million tons currently economically extractable. These reserves have been growing at nearly 1% annually for over thirty years.
Growth and Environmental Sustainability
A world of abundance can better address climate change and environmental problems by strengthening investment in the clean energy transition, adaptation tools, and research and development. Decoupling GDP from emissions, as many countries are already doing, can limit global warming to around 2°C while improving living standards.
Overcoming Mental Barriers
The primary limitations to achieving universal prosperity may not be physical, but social and political. A recent survey revealed that only 9% of French participants believe the next generation will live better lives, with no advanced economy (except Singapore) exceeding 30% in positive outlook. This highlights the need for a new discourse that embraces growth as a solution, not a problem.
As long as economic progress remains a priority, a world of prosperity for all is within reach.