Ammunition Concerns Rise as Iran War Enters Second Week

Washington/Tel Aviv/Tehran (dpa) – As the conflict with Iran enters its second week, questions are mounting regarding the sustainability of ammunition supplies for all parties involved. While the United States and Israel continue to report striking targets across Iran, concerns are growing about the potential for depletion of key weapon systems, compounded by prior support for Ukraine and the recent conflict in Gaza.

U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles Under Scrutiny

The question of whether the U.S. Can sustain a prolonged conflict without facing ammunition shortages has sparked debate within Washington. Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), a member of the Armed Services Committee, cautioned that the U.S. Does not have an “unlimited supply” of munitions [Reuters]. But, administration officials, including spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, have dismissed these concerns, asserting the U.S. Possesses “more than enough capacity” and significant hidden weapon caches.

President Donald Trump announced that U.S. Defense companies have committed to increasing production of advanced weaponry, though specific details remain undisclosed. Prior to the war, reports surfaced alleging a warning from Chief of Staff Dan Caine to Trump regarding potential shortages, citing the strain placed on stockpiles by support for Israel in Gaza and Ukraine against Russia [Reuters].

Iran’s Missile and Drone Inventory

Secrecy surrounds the remaining stocks of ballistic missiles and combat drones within Iran. State-affiliated media report only on alleged successes in the war. Fars news agency claims over 500 ballistic and cruise missiles, and at least 2,000 combat drones have been launched since the conflict began. Estimates prior to the war suggested Iran possessed around 2,000 medium-range and 6,000-8,000 short-range ballistic missiles.

The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs estimated Iran’s medium-range missile inventory at between 40 and 340 as of Saturday, with approximately 75 percent of launch pads reportedly destroyed. The U.S. Institute for War Studies (ISW) also suggests significant system losses, noting a decrease in the frequency of Iranian missile attacks.

Gulf State Air Defenses and Potential Shortfalls

Gulf states face a delicate situation, hoping their air defense missile supplies hold out against continued Iranian attacks. While the majority of missiles and drones aimed at the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have reportedly been intercepted, some have penetrated defenses. Prolonged attacks could force these nations to prioritize which targets to defend, such as civilian areas or critical oil and gas infrastructure.

Details regarding the number of Patriot missiles available for apply in the Gulf remain confidential. However, indications suggest potential needs for support, as evidenced by the British Ministry of Defense’s assistance with anti-aircraft defense in Jordan, Iraq, and Qatar.

Israel’s Offensive and Defensive Capabilities

The situation regarding Israel’s ammunition stockpiles, fighting on multiple fronts, is also shrouded in secrecy. Following the war’s commencement, the Defense Ministry ordered major defense companies to accelerate production of both offensive and defensive weapon systems.

The Key Question: Ammunition Endurance

Iran expert Danny Citrinowicz believes the critical question determining the conflict’s outcome is which side will exhaust its ammunition first [Washington Institute]. However, he emphasizes that, from Israel’s perspective, the destruction of Iranian launch pads is paramount, as they are essential for firing rockets. “they have suffered significant damage in this area,” Citrinowicz explains, adding that he doesn’t believe the number of launch pads has been reduced to zero.

Citrinowicz suggests Iran may be preparing a “second phase” of the conflict, potentially involving the Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthi militia, relying on the possibility that dwindling U.S. Interceptor missile supplies will allow their attacks to have a greater impact. He posits that Iranian leadership may be conserving missiles to overwhelm Israel’s defenses with assistance from the Houthis.