Russia May Launch New Ukraine Offensives After Spring Thaw, Military Analyst Predicts

Russian forces maintain the strategic initiative in Ukraine and could initiate new military campaigns following the end of the spring thaw, according to retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst for Gazeta.Ru and Vesti FM. Khodarenok’s assessment, shared on March 10, 2026, suggests a methodical, ongoing advance by Russian troops despite continued Ukrainian resistance.

Strategic Initiative and Ukrainian Defense

Khodarenok asserts that Russian troops are steadily advancing along the front lines, while Ukrainian defenses remain stable at both the strategic and operational levels. Ukrainian forces continue to mount counterattacks, but these efforts generally fail to yield significant gains and often result in substantial losses [1].

Potential for Spring, Summer and Autumn Offensives

If the Ukrainian leadership does not adopt a more pragmatic approach, Khodarenok predicts a series of Russian military campaigns throughout the year. These could begin with a spring offensive after the thaw, followed by operations in the summer and autumn. Each campaign, he suggests, could target decisive operational and strategic objectives [1].

Possible Objectives: Key Cities and Rear Areas

Khodarenok indicated that potential objectives for Russian forces could include capturing major Ukrainian cities such as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, and Odessa, as well as penetrating the rear areas of the Ukrainian army [1]. He emphasized that such operations would require careful planning, the allocation of forces and resources, and the establishment of appropriate troop groupings and reserves.

Preparations Underway

The military expert believes that Russian leadership and military command may already be engaged in preparatory perform for a possible spring campaign in 2026, maintaining operational secrecy [1].

Trump’s Ceasefire Interest

Khodarenok likewise noted that U.S. President Donald Trump recently expressed interest in achieving a rapid ceasefire in Ukraine during a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But, he believes the prospects for ending the conflict largely depend on the position taken by the Ukrainian authorities [1].

Khodarenok’s Background

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a Russian journalist, military observer, and Reserve Colonel of the Russian Federation [2]. He served in the Soviet Air Defence Forces from 1971 to 2000, holding positions such as commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division [2].

Khodarenok concluded that if Kyiv accepts Russia’s terms, the situation could de-escalate, but warned that Russia’s demands for a peaceful resolution will turn into more stringent with each passing day [1].