Makerfield By-Election Could Reshape UK Political Landscape
The by-election in Makerfield, a northwest England constituency, has become a focal point of British politics after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to enable Mayor Andy Burnham to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the party leadership, according to multiple reports. The contest, set for Thursday, could signal broader shifts in the UK’s political dynamics, as Labour faces internal fractures and the rise of far-right Reform UK.
Why Is the Makerfield By-Election Significant?
The by-election was triggered by Simons’ resignation in June 2024, which allowed Burnham, a prominent Labour figure, to run for the seat. Burnham’s potential victory could bolster his bid to lead Labour, a move that has gained traction amid Starmer’s declining popularity. According to Ipsos polling, Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister since the 1970s, with Labour losing nearly 1,500 local council seats to Reform UK in recent elections.
Reform UK’s surge has disrupted Labour’s traditional dominance, particularly in northern England. The party, led by Nigel Farage, has capitalized on discontent over immigration and economic issues, according to political analyst Aaron Bastani. “Many Reform voters see Labour as the party of government, tied to past policies like the Iraq War,” he said, noting that Burnham’s personal reputation could bridge some of this divide.
Who Are the Main Candidates and What Are Their Platforms?
Andy Burnham (Labour): As mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham has built a reputation as a pro-business leader advocating for public services. His campaign emphasizes bridging Labour’s gap with working-class voters, many of whom have shifted to Reform UK. However, internal Labour tensions persist, with some members criticizing his stance on Israel and welfare cuts.
Robert Kenyon (Reform UK): The “plucky plumber” faces allegations of sexist social media posts, including endorsements of derogatory remarks about women. Despite this, he remains a viable challenger, with polls suggesting a tight race. Reform UK’s platform focuses on anti-immigration policies, framing issues like local business changes as symbols of broader societal decline.
Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain): A breakaway far-right party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, Restore Britain claims to attract disillusioned Reform voters. Its impact on the race remains uncertain, though some analysts suggest it could split the far-right vote.
Michael Winstanley (Conservative): The former Wigan mayor runs as a Conservative, but the party’s influence in Makerfield is minimal. In the 2024 general election, Conservatives secured just over 10% of the vote in the constituency.
What Do the Polls Say About the Candidates?
Recent surveys indicate a two-horse race between Burnham and Kenyon. A June 2024 Opinium poll for Forward Democracy found Burnham leading Kenyon by 5 percentage points among likely voters. However, Restore Britain’s presence could redistribute votes, with estimates suggesting it might capture 7% of the share. Labour currently leads in the by-election, but long-term trends favor Reform UK, which holds 42% of projected general election support compared to Labour’s 34%.
Political strategist Tom de Grunwald of StopReformUK.Vote emphasized the importance of tactical voting: “If you want to stop Reform UK, Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can do it.” However, analyst Bastani remains skeptical about Restore Britain’s long-term influence, noting that many voters now view Farage as part of the establishment.
What Are the Broader Implications?
The outcome could signal whether Labour can reclaim its traditional working-class base or if Reform UK’s rise is irreversible. A Burnham victory might pressure Star