Paul Ehrlich, Prophet of Doom, Dies at 93

Paul R. Ehrlich, the Stanford University biologist whose 1968 book, The Population Bomb, warned of impending global famine and sparked decades of debate, died on March 13, 2026, in Palo Alto, California. He was 93.

Early Life and Career

Ehrlich was born on May 29, 1932. He became a Bing Professor of Population Studies at Stanford University and dedicated over 60 years to researching topics ranging from co-evolution in butterflies and flowering plants to overpopulation. He founded the Center for Conservation Biology and co-founded the Human Biology Program, also establishing Jasper Ridge as a research reserve. Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment sponsored a conversation with Ehrlich in April 2023, following the publication of his autobiography, Life: A Journey Through Science and Politics.

The Population Bomb and Its Impact

Published in 1968, The Population Bomb sold over 2 million copies and catapulted Ehrlich to international prominence. The book predicted widespread famine and resource depletion due to unchecked population growth, asserting that the planet’s condition began to deteriorate rapidly in the 1950s when population growth exceeded food production. He urged couples to limit their families to one or two children. The New York Times noted the book was both celebrated and criticized, with some calling its warnings “sky-is-falling rhetoric.”

Public Presence and Debate

Ehrlich became a frequent commentator on environmental issues, appearing on television more than 1,000 times, including over 20 appearances on The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson. His predictions, but, largely failed to materialize. He predicted 65 million Americans would die of famine between 1980 and 1989, that the UK would become impoverished by 2000, and that India could not sustain its population. These forecasts proved inaccurate as global food production increased dramatically and famine rates declined.

The Julian Simon Bet

In 1980, Ehrlich engaged in a famous public bet with economist Julian Simon. Simon argued that human ingenuity would overcome resource scarcity, leading to falling commodity prices. Ehrlich wagered that five selected metals would increase in price over the following decade. Simon won the bet, as the prices of all five metals decreased, adjusted for inflation. Ehrlich acknowledged the loss with a check for $576.07. Despite this, he continued to maintain his pessimistic outlook, stating in 2009 that The Population Bomb was “way too optimistic” and in 2023 that the coming decades would bring an end to the “kind of civilization we’re used to.”

Legacy and Controversy

Ehrlich’s work influenced environmental policies and sparked debate about population control. His views were linked to coercive policies such as India’s forced sterilization campaigns during the 1970s and China’s one-child policy. Whereas his predictions proved largely incorrect, his warnings about environmental degradation and resource depletion remain relevant today. Inkl reported that Ehrlich believed scientists had a responsibility to speak out about environmental concerns.

Key Takeaways

• Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb raised awareness about environmental issues but was largely inaccurate in its predictions.
• His work sparked debate about population control and influenced environmental policies.
• The bet with Julian Simon highlighted the importance of human ingenuity in addressing resource scarcity.
• Ehrlich remained a vocal advocate for environmental protection throughout his life.