Russian Army Losses Rise, Threatening Kremlin Offensive Plans

Russian military casualties in the war against Ukraine have risen sharply, making it increasingly difficult to achieve the goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin. That’s what he writes about Financial Timesciting Ukrainian and Western officials as well as military analysts.

According to Michael Koffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Russia’s current tactics prevent it from achieving significant results on the battlefield.

“Putin has bet that sustained pressure on a broad front will eventually lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian side. But the way Russian forces are fighting is simply not going to lead to significant operational breakthroughs,” he said.

Analysts note that the rate of Russian advance on key sections of the front is only 15 to 70 meters per day. According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), this is slower than in most wars of the past 100 years. At the same time, Russia’s total losses are estimated at at least 325 thousand dead.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Russia was losing tens of thousands of soldiers every month.

“Every month between 30 and 35 thousand Russian soldiers are killed or seriously wounded,” he pointed out.

According to data from the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight, the desertion rate in the Russian army has reached its highest level in almost four years of war. The former Ukrainian officer who led this group noted that Russian commanders were urging the troops to advance at all costs:

“They spend their resources beyond what is reasonable, resulting in losses that are often avoidable.”

A separate role in the increase in losses is played by the intensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles. According to Latvian intelligence, drones are responsible for 70-80% of casualties on both sides.

“A wounded soldier can quickly become a burden when dozens of drones are constantly monitoring or attacking, and evacuation remains extremely risky,” explains the former Ukrainian officer.

Although Russia is formally implementing plans to recruit about 35,000 men a month, most recruits serve only to replace losses. According to Coffman, this trend is a sign of deeper problems:

“Recruitment trends are increasingly telling us that Russia will find it difficult to withstand the pressure of the offensive.”