Putin’s Diminishing Circle: Russia Navigates Losses of Key Allies and a Shifting Global Order

In recent months, Russia has experienced a series of geopolitical setbacks with the removal of key allies from power, raising questions about its standing on the world stage and its strategic focus amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The loss of these partners – including leaders in Venezuela and Iran – has left Russia increasingly isolated and reliant on a shifting dynamic with the United States.

The Cascade of Losses

The removal of these leaders began in December 2024, when Bashar al-Assad, a longtime Russian ally, was forced from power by rebel militias and is now reportedly living in Moscow. Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela was captured by U.S. Forces in early January 2026, followed by the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, a result of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes. These events have collectively weakened Russia’s efforts to circumvent existing international frameworks governing trade and security.

A Second-Order Power?

These losses have prompted a reassessment of Russia’s global influence. According to a Moscow-based foreign policy source, “The current paradigm seems to be that the U.S. Does what it wants, and no one else, Russia included, can do much about it.” The situation has led Russia to appear as a second-order power, seemingly yearning for a return to established international norms and laws. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, expressed this sentiment, stating, “We have all lost what we call international law,” and Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, called on the U.S. To justify its actions within the context of existing rules.

Ukraine as the Primary Focus

Russia’s international ambitions have been largely consumed by its military and political objectives in Ukraine since 2022. The outcome of the war in Ukraine is now seen as the defining factor in determining Russia’s power and global standing. Other geopolitical conflicts have been deprioritized. Moscow views a potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. Presidency as its best hope for a favorable resolution in Ukraine, and is therefore cautious about taking actions that could jeopardize that possibility.

Navigating a Complex Relationship with the U.S.

Despite the tensions, Russia continues to engage with the U.S. On certain fronts. Peskov expressed “deep disappointment” over failed U.S. Talks with Iran, while simultaneously acknowledging the value of U.S. Mediation efforts in Ukraine. Russia is reportedly continuing to provide intelligence to Iran for targeting U.S. Forces, but is wary of escalating tensions with the U.S. And potentially alienating Trump.

Economic Benefits from Global Instability

The conflict in Iran has inadvertently created economic opportunities for Russia. The U.S. Is depleting its stock of air-defense interceptors, crucial for Ukraine’s defense, as they are used in the Middle East. Russia’s energy exports have benefited from increased global demand and higher prices, with oil prices spiking to nearly $120 a barrel before settling around $90. Russia is projected to net an additional $3.5 billion in revenue per month, equivalent to a third of the estimated monthly cost of the war in Ukraine.

Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, but the resulting political instability is expected to increase Iran’s reliance on Russia and China.