EXPERT Q&A – Taiwan‘s recent Han Kuang military exercises tested the island’s responses to a potential full-scale Chinese invasion. The drills not only simulated military strikes and blockade elements, but also gray zone warfare operations like cyberattacks. Taiwan was reminded again of that range of Chinese tactics in a recent recall vote, which the government said was preceded by a major Chinese disinformation and misinformation campaign.
These issues are all top of mind for Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark montgomery, former Executive Director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission and a Senior Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). RADM Montgomery joined The Cipher Brief live from Taiwan, where he was running tabletop exercises based on a potential invasion by Chinese forces.Our conversation has been lightly edited.
The cipher Brief: What is driving the narrative at this moment in Taiwan?
RADM Montgomery: For me, the big questions here right now are, how does Taiwan satisfy President Trump’s demands for increased attention and focus on defense and on security? How does Taiwan prove itself to be the kind of ally that President Trump wants to support? He has a pretty high – but also moving – standard of what that is. So one of the biggest things they’re working on right now is making sure that this year’s defense budget hits 3% for defense. I think they’ll get there fairly easily because of some changes in how they look at things.
And then,how do they maximize the support they get from the united States to build a counter-intervention force that can hold the chinese Communist Party off long enough for the United states to come over the hill in any kind of future conflict,if necessary?
The Cipher Brief: What are some of the things they’re doing to realy shore up defense spending in particular?
RADM Montgomery: They were counting a certain way,not the NATO way. They weren’t counting pensions for military personnel. they weren’t counting the Coast Guard; they have a vrey active Coast Guard, which will all be sunk in war. It kind of meets the NATO definition. Once you add that in, they’re getting close to 3%.
Then they’re also putting in a lot of foreign military sale packages. Most of those won’t generate budget requirements for one to two to three years, but it’s great to see them doing that as they’re going to need 3% or higher next year, 4% the year after that, and eventually 5%, maybe three years from now. I think that’s where President Lai is headed, so you have to get things in order. I’ve heard rumors that there are 10 or a dozen foreign military sales packages that are working their way through the system. That’s fantastic work by the United States and Taiwan to get that moving.
And then, we’ve got to make sure that they’re buying the right equipment. The Army is the center of gravity in a counter intervention. That’s really significant. But the Air Force and Navy are really important in the phase-zero gray zone conflict that’s going on all the time. So they’ve got to buy a little bit of each. This is the problem when you have an enemy that’s 22 times the size of you – GDP wise – and even more so population wise.So you really have to prepare.And the final thing they’re buying is readiness.Simply put, paying for battalions to travel to U.S. training facilities, paying for the right amount of ammunition for live fire training. That kind of readiness bill is really required. It’s something the U.S. is very good at and we budget for properly.Most militaries don’t. So Taiwan needs to start doing that.
The Cipher Brief: Something we focus on a lot at The Cipher
Preparing for China’s Actions Against Taiwan: Lessons from Tabletop Exercises
Recent tabletop exercises reveal crucial steps to deter and respond to potential Chinese pressure on Taiwan. it’s about preparation – both preventing issues and recovering quickly. This requires investment across all infrastructure and potential attack vectors. It’s a significant undertaking, which is why Taiwan’s President Lai established a task force focused on societal resilience.
One key takeaway? The U.S. and Taiwan navies should actively practice escorting Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships. This is especially critically important if China attempts to block access to taiwan’s ports through administrative rules. Pre-established, demonstrated escort operations aren’t seen as escalatory. However, attacking a U.S. Navy ship protecting a convoy would be a drastic escalation. This approach allows the U.S. to present strategic challenges to China, rather than being caught off guard by them.
Predicting President Xi’s intentions and timeline for action remains a central question.Ultimately, only Xi knows his true plans. But we can make informed guesses.
While 2027 was once considered a reasonable timeframe for potential action – based on China’s rapid military growth and a more linear growth of U.S. and allied capabilities – that assessment is evolving. unexpected events, like a change in Xi’s health, could alter the situation.
However, other nations are influencing the equation. The U.S. has increased defense spending,notably on munitions,following Russia’s invasion of ukraine. This was a necessary response to a critical shortfall. Japan is also significantly increasing its defense budget, aiming to double it over five years.