Ukraine’s Strikes Are Slowly Crippling russia’s Oil Industry

Given the many effects of the war in Ukraine on the Russian economy, few suspected that fuel shortages would be one of them. After all, Russia is an oil-rich country whose energy infrastructure is far from the front line; for most of the war, it was Ukraine, not Russia, that was in the line of fire. Yet as August, when Ukraine began a concerted campaign to strike oil refineries deep in Russia, fuel shortages have begun to worry the Russians. By the end of October, Ukrainian drones had struck more then half of Russia’s 38 major refineries at least once. As a result, Russia went from processing about 5.4 million barrels of oil per day in July to roughly 5 million barrels per day in september. Production disruptions spread across multiple regions and some Russian gas stations began curtailing fuel. By late October, additional strikes, including on refineries in Ryazan and Saratov, further underscored the scope of Ukraine’s campaign.

With such results,it may be tempting to conclude that Ukraine is on the verge of destroying the Russian oil industry. But this is not so. Despite the serious damage they cause, the attacks are unlikely to change Moscow’s resolve in the near future. For now,Russia’s refining sector is still resilient enough,both as of it’s significant excess capacity as the world’s third-largest refining system and its ability to quickly repair damaged units. The Russian government also has a variety of tools it can use to maintain a relative balance. For Ukraine, ther is also the risk that the campaign could prompt Moscow to step up its own attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and energy systems as the country enters its fourth winter of war.

But attacks on refineries could – if they can be sustained at their current pace – have far-reaching consequences in the long run. As Russian resilience is relentlessly tested, it gradually wears down. Even though plants used to distill crude oil can be repaired relatively easily after each attack, they erode after the repeated heating and cooling cycles caused by impacts. And as Russia’s oil industry becomes increasingly dependent on government intervention for crisis management,the energy sector will become state-run and less efficient. Indeed, the real damage caused by the Ukraine campaign is cumulative and institutional, not physical. Even as it seeks to maintain short-term stability, russia is leading the acceleration of long-term decline.

The current fuel shortage, the most noticeable sence full-scale war began in 2022, is not the result of Ukrainian attacks on refineries alone. On the one hand, the Russian fuel market is strained every summer by a combination of high demand for agricultural products, high levels of driving and refinery shutdowns for annual maintenance. This summer, demand increased further as more Russians traveled by car to avoid flight cancellations and train delays caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on transport infrastructure.

Another factor is that the Russian government is increasingly intervening in the country’s fuel market in the name of price stability and inflation control. Its main mechanism, known as a “price damper,” is a subsidy that compensates refiners when domestic fuel prices fall below export parity. But as the government is pressed for funds, it has increasingly shifted the burden of subsidies to manufacturers and retailers, using threats to keep the market supplied, as often happens under strict price controls. The attempt to keep fuel prices stable removed critically important price signals for both consumers and producers and upset the balance between supply and demand. In times of low profitability, the major oil companies keep their own gas station

Ukraine’s Growing Campaign Against Russian Oil Refineries

Ukraine is escalating its attacks on Russian oil refineries, aiming to disrupt Russia’s war effort and inflict economic pain. These strikes, primarily carried out with drones, represent a shift in strategy, focusing on facilities vital to Russia’s fuel production. while Ukraine previously avoided targeting energy infrastructure within Russia, fearing escalation, it now believes the benefits outweigh the risks.

The attacks are proving surprisingly effective. Russia’s air defenses, stretched thin by the need to protect its cities and infrastructure from Russian bombing, cannot provide sufficient cover for all refinery targets and must choose which ones to protect.Moving air cover from place to place over vast distances takes time. Simultaneously occurring, the attacker can switch targets at will.

Even though its defense systems proved unable to prevent the attacks, Russia began to make other adaptations. Refineries, such as, are adding makeshift nets and overhead screens. Such measures may seem elementary, but even small deviations in a drone’s trajectory can be the difference between a dent and a catastrophic fire.

Paradoxically, ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil installations draws on the lessons of Russia’s own campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure. Since the early stages of the war, Russia has directed attacks at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, aiming to destroy Ukraine’s economy and crush morale. In 2023 and 2024,Ukraine was barely able to keep pace in repairing the damage done by Russia. Now,with Russia’s offensive capabilities only growing,it has become a no-win race.

In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to persuade Russia to agree to a moratorium on airstrikes against energy infrastructure, but to no avail. In this sense, Kiev’s campaign against the refineries is partly a form of deterrence, partly a form of revenge. It seeks to impose on Russia the costs that Russia has long imposed on Ukraine.In theory, this could impose an informal mutual moratorium on energy strikes, as they come at a high cost to both sides. But so far the result has only been escalation.

For Ukraine, attacking refineries is a especially effective way to attack Russia. Attacks on pipelines, fuel storage facilities and railways have more transient effects: they can usually be restored to service within days. But refineries, with their large and complex equipment, remain the more vulnerable and symbolically powerful targets.

The resilience of the Russian energy sector is gradually eroding.

In recent weeks, ukraine has stepped up its