It’s not a perfect example, but whether the new overtime rules for the regular season had anything too do with the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys tying at 40, for those who took the Packers, you received a rude reminder that ties are a loss in any self-respecting NFL Survivor contest.
The other big gash this week came from the Los Angeles Chargers’ loss in New York.
Advertisement
Not to toot horns,but here’s our advice from last week:
“Our fifth spot could go to the Chargers,but a road trip a week after a third divisional game is not a great spot to get the best out of a team. Simultaneously occurring, the Giants are turning to Jaxson Dart, and if we’re reading the tea leaves correctly, the team is looking forward to the breath of fresh air at quarterback.It could also be the Packers in this spot, but they’re also on the road, and there’s three home games where Green Bay will be favored by this much, or more.”
of course, if you didn’t heed this warning, you’re not reading this anyway, as you’re out of your survivor contest.
If you are still alive in your group, here’s our advice for Week 5.
Advertisement
Contest sizes can vary,from the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas,to the 15-plus people you compete against at work or the variety of entrants in a Yahoo Football Survival League. Fundamentally, the smaller the field, the better chance your contest ends before Week 18. Your strategy should be tweaked relative to that.However, for our purposes, we have to make the assumption that you’ll need to go the distance to survive the contest.
Week 5 money lines
Table of Contents
How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).
The money line and implied win percentage for every favorite in Week 5.
(Matt Russell)
*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold
Market power ratings
It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going
The Cardinals are a top-18 team, but it’s a debate between them and teams like the Jaguars, Patriots, Steelers and Vikings.However, any team facing the Titans seems to be worthy of a top-18 rating on that given Sunday.
2. Bills (77.6%) over Patriots
Waiting one more week to use the Bills in prime time at home against the patriots sounded like an excellent idea,until the Patriots cleaned up their act and routed the Panthers last week. Meanwhile,Buffalo has been a little too stressed in the second halves of home games with the Dolphins and Saints for us to be at maximum confidence.
The lookahead line for this matchup was Bills -10, but with a minor downgrade for not covering Buffalo’s big point spreads and the Patriots’ win, this line has crept down to where it’s not a top-three game in terms of win probability for the Bills’ remaining games.
What you’re giving up:
* Week 8 at Panthers (BUF -10)
* Week 10 at Dolphins (BUF -7.5)
* Week 14 vs. Bengals (BUF -14)
* week 18 vs. Jets (BUF -12.5)
The Bills go to Atlanta next week and then have a bye before playing at Carolina in Week 8. Given their home winning streak, you’d prefer to take Buffalo in Orchard Park, but the other best options that week are:
* Falcons (home to Dolphins)
* patriots (home to Browns)
We’ve added Week 10 to the “What you’re giving up” list, as that week’s shaping up to be so barren with Survivor options that the Bears (home to the Giants) are looking like the next-best choice.
3. Colts (73.2%) over Raiders
How bad are the Raiders?
That’s the question as the Colts get their first prospect to be a big favorite at home.
Raiders QB Geno Smith keeps throwing interceptions, but Las Vegas finally got RB Ashton Jeanty going last week in a losing cause against Chicago. it would be nice to have this matchup a little later on, just so we could be convinced the Raiders don’t have enough to pull off a road upset against a good team, while being even more convinced the Colts are just that.
What you’re giving up:
* Week 8 vs. Titans (IND -11)
All decisions in Survivor are inter-connected, and it’s never been easier to define as with the Cardinals, Bills and Colts. The Colts are the team to target in Week 8 rather of the Bills, as that should be the only other chance to rely on Indy – a team the betting market didn’t have in its top 18 before the season.
The Colts are -3.5 at home against the Cardinals next w