The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime chokepoint through which approximately 12 percent of global trade passes, faces heightened risks of closure following a recent surge in military hostilities in Yemen. The escalation, involving strikes on Sanaa International Airport and retaliatory missile fire toward Saudi Arabia, threatens to disrupt energy flows that account for 4.0 million barrels of oil per day, according to industry data.
### Escalation at Sanaa International Airport
The recent instability began when the internationally recognized Yemeni government conducted an airstrike on the runway at Sanaa International Airport. Government officials stated the action was necessary to block an Iranian aircraft they alleged was transporting military experts and drone technology.
Houthi officials contested this account, asserting that the aircraft carried over 200 medical patients and a delegation returning from the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Following the strike, the Houthi movement diverted the flight to Hodeidah and responded by launching ballistic missiles at Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-led coalition reported that its defense systems intercepted the projectiles.
### Strategic Risks to Global Energy Arteries
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait serves as a critical corridor for crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) moving toward markets in Europe and North America. Analysts suggest that the convergence of tensions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz could create a “pincer movement” affecting global energy security.
According to Mohammad Cherkaoui, a professor of international conflict resolution, the potential for a simultaneous crisis in both waterways poses a significant threat to global stability. If both straits were closed, approximately 25 percent of the world’s total oil and gas supply would be obstructed. Shipping companies would be forced to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, a detour that adds 10 to 14 days to transit times and significantly increases insurance and operational costs.
### Impact on Saudi Export Infrastructure
Saudi Arabia has mitigated the risks associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by utilizing its 1,200km (745-mile) East-West Pipeline. This infrastructure allows the firm Saudi Aramco to transport oil from eastern facilities in Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
However, this bypass remains vulnerable to the security situation in the Bab al-Mandeb. If Houthi forces successfully restrict navigation through the southern Red Sea, Saudi Arabia’s ability to export via Yanbu would be severely compromised. This would leave the Kingdom, alongside its Gulf neighbors, with limited options for moving energy supplies to international markets.
### Regional Geopolitical Alignment
The current tensions reflect broader regional shifts. Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, has previously discussed the formation of a “belt” between the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb to support the “axis of resistance.”
Ibrahim Fraihat, a professor of international conflict resolution at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, noted that the region has been operating under significant pressure since the onset of the current conflict. With the resurgence of direct military exchanges, observers, including former commander of the US Military Intelligence Readiness Command Bill Putnam, have expressed concern that further retaliatory actions could lead to a sustained disruption of maritime navigation in the Red Sea.
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