California’s Uncertain Gubernatorial Primary: Why Voters Are Holding Their Ballots

As the June 2 primary election approaches, California’s gubernatorial race remains defined by a rare level of volatility and voter hesitation. With no clear front-runner emerging from an unsettled field of Democratic candidates, many voters are choosing to wait before casting their ballots, a trend that election officials warn could lead to a slower vote-counting process.

A Race in Flux

The current political landscape has been marked by a series of unexpected developments, including the departure of former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell from the race in April. This absence of a clear Democratic leader has left many voters feeling uncertain about which candidate is best positioned to succeed. Political analysts suggest that this “roller coaster” of a race has prompted a wait-and-see approach among the electorate.

According to Christian Grose, director of the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, the combination of a large candidate slate, confusion over platforms, and a strategic desire to choose a candidate “most likely to win” has contributed to the current state of indecision. The race has also been complicated by various controversies, including the guilty plea of a former advisor to Xavier Becerra, questions regarding the temperament of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, and a lack of disclosure regarding influencers paid to promote billionaire Tom Steyer.

Consolidation and Polling

Despite the uncertainty, there are signs that the Democratic electorate is beginning to coalesce. A survey released Tuesday by the California Democratic Party showed former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading with 21% of the support, followed by Tom Steyer at 15%. Among Republican-leaning voters, Steve Hilton polled at 22%, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco held 10%.

Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, noted that while the race has seen “a lot of twists and turns,” voters are beginning to move toward specific candidates. Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes will advance to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation.

What to Expect on Election Night

The tendency for voters to hold onto their mail-in ballots until the final days could significantly impact the speed of the results. Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation, noted that a higher-than-usual volume of mail ballots returned near the June 2 deadline may extend the counting process.

Election officials across the state are preparing for this scenario:

• Los Angeles County: Spokesperson Mike Sanchez stated that the registrar is “fully prepared” for a significant influx of ballots returned on or near election day.
• San Francisco: Election officials report that ballot returns have been slow, suggesting voters are waiting for further developments in the race.
• Orange County: Unlike other regions, data shows that voters are returning ballots at a rate exceeding previous primary elections.

Expert Advice for Voters

To avoid delays and ensure their voices are heard, election experts are encouraging voters to take advantage of early voting options. Alexander recommends that voters who have not yet submitted their ballots by late May should return them in person at a designated drop box, county election office, or voting site rather than relying on the U.S. Postal Service.

“The critical thing is to have a plan,” Alexander said, noting that in-person voting or using secure drop boxes can help avoid the potential risks associated with mail delays and the longer processing times required for signature verification on mailed ballots.

As the primary reaches its conclusion, voters should be prepared for the possibility that the final results may not be determined on election night. Given the nature of the state’s ballot-counting process, an early lead on election night is not always indicative of the final outcome.