Deportation Trends: A Shift in Numbers Under Trump and Biden Administrations

Recent data analysis reveals a complex picture of deportation trends involving Mexican nationals, with numbers fluctuating significantly between the Biden and Trump administrations. Even as deportations reached nearly 300,000 annually under President Biden, they have decreased to approximately 144,000 since President Trump resumed office in January 2025, according to Mexican government data.

Biden vs. Trump: A Comparative Look at Deportation Numbers

The analysis, conducted by Quinto Elemento Lab, an independent nonprofit investigative journalism organization based in Mexico City, indicates that more Mexicans were deported annually under the Biden administration than during the second term of the Trump administration. Specifically, deportations of Mexicans reached almost 300,000 per year under Biden, compared to roughly 144,000 deported by the end of 2025 under Trump. Source: Los Angeles Times

Factors Influencing Deportation Rates

The decrease in overall numbers isn’t solely attributable to policy changes. Fewer attempted border crossings since President Trump increased border security are as well a contributing factor. A reduction in successful entries naturally leads to fewer removals. Efraín Tzuc, a data analyst with Quinto Elemento Lab, noted that the current deportation policy under Trump “does not appear to be as severe as in previous years in numerical terms.”

The Role of Cartel Violence in Migration

Beyond the numbers, the data highlights a shift in the origins of deported migrants. Increasingly, those being deported come from states plagued by cartel violence. In 2025, the highest number of deported Mexicans – 12,786 – originated from Chiapas, a southern state bordering Guatemala. This represents a change from past trends where migrants typically came from central Mexico.

The Jalisco New Generation cartel’s expansion into states like Chiapas, Guerrero, and Oaxaca has exacerbated violence and displacement, driving more people to attempt migration to the U.S. Cartels are fighting for control of drug trafficking and migrant smuggling routes, leading to increased extortion and violence against local communities. In Guerrero, cartel activity included the employ of over 100 bombs dropped on a single community in a 24-hour period in 2024. Source: Los Angeles Times

Broader Trends in U.S. Deportations

The trend of decreasing deportations extends beyond Mexican nationals. An analysis by The New York Times shows that the Trump administration deported approximately 540,000 people in the last year, a decrease of 50,000 from 2023 and 110,000 from 2024, the final year of the Biden administration. Source: Los Angeles Times

Increased Focus on Illegal Firearms

Alongside shifts in deportation policies, the Trump administration has also prioritized combating illegal firearms trafficking. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) seized over 36,000 illegal firearms since President Trump took office, including 4,359 guns bound for Mexican cartels. Source: Fox News

The administration has also reported success in removing criminal illegal aliens from sanctuary cities across the country, and a decrease in drug-related deaths as border security measures are strengthened. Source: White House