USA Favored to Win 2026 World Baseball Classic
As the 2026 World Baseball Classic (WBC) approaches, the United States is positioned as the odds-on favorite to claim the championship, according to DraftKings odds as of Wednesday, March 4, 2026.[1] This marks a shift from the 2023 tournament, where the Dominican Republic held the top spot.
Current Odds and Contenders
The United States currently holds -110 odds, signifying a strong expectation for victory. Japan, the reigning champion, follows closely at +350, although the Dominican Republic is at +400.[1] Venezuela is similarly considered a contender, with odds of +900, but there’s a significant drop-off in betting interest after that, with Puerto Rico at +2000 and Mexico at +2200.[1]
Betting Trends
The American squad is attracting substantial betting action, with 70% of tickets and 78% of the money backing them at DraftKings.[1] At BetMGM, the U.S. Leads in ticket share (34.7%), but Japan leads in handle share (41.7%), making them the sportsbook’s largest liability.[1] Collectively, the U.S., Japan, and the Dominican Republic account for 82.5% of all bets, and 91.2% of the money wagered.[1]
Dominican Republic’s Strong Roster
Despite being second favorites, the Dominican Republic boasts a formidable roster featuring six players who were top-10 MVP vote recipients in the previous year: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Junior Caminero, Jeremy Peña, and Geraldo Perdomo.[2] The team also includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte, and captain Manny Machado.[2] Their starting rotation features Sandy Alcántara, a former Cy Young winner, and Cristopher Sánchez.[2] Carlos Estévez and Camilo Doval bolster the bullpen, combining for over 200 career saves.[2]
Japan’s Pursuit of a Repeat
Japan aims to become the first team to win back-to-back WBC titles, having previously won in 2006 and 2009.[2] Shohei Ohtani will participate as a hitter, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the MVP of the last Fall Classic, is slated to be Japan’s starting pitcher against Taiwan.[2] Yamamoto’s participation was approved by the Los Angeles Dodgers after a 2025 season where he pitched 211 innings, including the postseason.[2]
USA’s Pitching and Hitting Power
The United States’ aspirations are supported by a strong pitching lineup led by recent Cy Young Award winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, along with reliever Mason Miller.[2] Their offensive lineup includes Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bobby Witt Jr.[2] Aaron Judge, a three-time MVP, will be making his first appearance in the Classic as captain of the Yankees.[2]
Tournament Structure and Schedule
The 20-team tournament is divided into four groups, with pool play taking place in Tokyo, Japan; Miami, Florida; Houston, Texas; and San Juan, Puerto Rico.[3] The top two teams from each group will advance to the quarterfinals, followed by the semifinals, and culminating in the championship game on March 17.[3] Team USA will begin its campaign on March 6 against Brazil in Houston.[3]
Pitching Restrictions
To protect pitchers’ arms in preparation for the upcoming MLB season, restrictions will be in place regarding pitch counts. Pitchers cannot exceed 65 pitches in the first round, 80 in the quarterfinals, and 95 in the semifinals or final.[2] There are also limitations on consecutive appearances.[2]
[1] ESPN
[3] NBC Sports