US and Israel Attacks on Iran Raise Questions of Regime Change and Historical Precedents
Barely an hour after the first U.S. And Israeli missiles struck Iran on Saturday, President Donald Trump made clear his hope for regime change, urging the Iranian people to “seize control of your destiny.” Whereas the prospect of overthrowing the Iranian government may seem appealing given its unpopularity and recent weakening, history suggests that such endeavors are fraught with challenges and rarely unfold as planned.
A History of US Intervention and Regime Change
The United States has a long and complex history of attempting regime change, with interventions in Vietnam, Panama, Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela, and even Iran itself in 1953, when the CIA helped orchestrate a coup against democratically elected leader Mohammad Mosaddegh. These interventions often aim for clear intentions, such as promoting democracy or supporting anti-communist leaders, but frequently devolve into political quagmires, civil wars, and unintended consequences.
As President Trump himself noted in 2016 and 2025, the policy of nation-building and regime change has often been unsuccessful, “wrecking far more nations than they built.”
Current Situation in Iran and Potential for Change
Following the recent attacks, a key question emerges: does the U.S. Government understand the complexities of the situation in Iran? The country’s economy is struggling, and dissent exists, but the core leadership remains deeply united by ideology and religion. Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the attacks as reported by Al Jazeera.
While the U.S. Hasn’t articulated a postwar vision, it may be willing to work with elements within the current government, as seen in Venezuela, where Washington has shown a willingness to collaborate with President Delcy Rodríguez, despite previously supporting María Corina Machado. However, achieving a shift in power will require convincing members of the regime that there is “no salvation” and that cooperation with the United States is necessary.
Lessons from Latin America
The United States has a long history of intervention in Latin America, dating back to the Monroe Doctrine. Historically, this intervention has often led to violence, bloodshed, and human rights violations. PBS NewsHour reports that interventions in Guatemala and Nicaragua resulted in prolonged civil conflicts and significant loss of life.
Even after the Cold War, President Trump rekindled this legacy with actions in the Caribbean and Venezuela, including the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January 2026.
Challenges and Uncertainties
Experts like Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies emphasize the difficulty of penetrating the ranks of the Iranian regime and finding pragmatic individuals willing to cooperate. Phillips O’Brien, a professor at the University of St. Andrews, notes that air power can damage leadership but cannot guarantee a successful transition.
the political winds in Tehran remain uncertain. The leaders who emerge could be equally repressive or viewed as illegitimate U.S. Puppets.