US-Israel War with Iran: A Week of Escalation and Regime Change Prospects

A week into the conflict initiated by the United States and Israel, Iran is facing intensified attacks, raising concerns about a wider regional war and the potential for regime change. While the conflict began with strikes on February 28, 2026, some Iranian citizens reportedly welcomed the attacks, hoping for the overthrow of the theocratic government that has been in power for 47 years.

Escalation of Attacks and Initial Retaliation

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran following weeks of military buildup and threats from President Trump. The stated goals of the operation include preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and eliminating perceived threats from the Iranian regime Council on Foreign Relations. Israeli Defense Force (IDF) strikes reportedly killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with additional U.S. Strikes targeting military sites in Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Qum, and Tabriz.

Iran quickly retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at Israel and U.S. Facilities across the Middle East, including in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates Council on Foreign Relations.

The Prospect of Regime Change

President Trump has openly suggested the possibility of regime change in Iran, even urging Iranians to capitalize on the attacks as an opportunity to overthrow their government. He stated that this may be their “only chance in generations” Council on Foreign Relations. Trump has indicated satisfaction with the prospect of a fresh Iranian leader willing to cooperate with the U.S.

The “Venezuela Scenario”

The U.S. Appears to be considering a strategy similar to its intervention in Venezuela, where U.S. Special forces supported a political transition involving the vice president, Delcy Rodriguez. The aim is to replace the top leadership in Iran while maintaining the existing political system of the Islamic Republic New York Times.

Cornelius Adebahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations suggests that Iran could appoint a new leader backed by the Revolutionary Guards and forge new ties with the U.S., mirroring the outcome in Venezuela, where changes were less drastic than some had hoped New York Times.

International Reactions

The joint attacks by the U.S. And Israel have drawn varied reactions from the international community. U.S. Allies and adversaries alike have expressed concern over the risks of a wider regional conflict CBS News. The European Union has called for maximum restraint and adherence to international law, while also emphasizing the importance of nuclear safety and preventing further escalation CBS News. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned the military escalation and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities CBS News.

Ongoing Developments

As of March 5, 2026, U.S. And Israeli attacks have targeted approximately 4,000 locations across Iran and Lebanon New York Times. The conflict has resulted in over 1,320 deaths, according to Lebanese and Iranian state media CNN. NATO allies are becoming increasingly involved, and Iran has warned European countries that they could be considered “legitimate targets” if they side with the U.S. And Israel CNN.