Europe’s Aviation Faces Turbulence: Fuel Shortages and Reliance on Gulf Carriers

European airlines are grappling with a confluence of challenges – escalating jet fuel prices and disruptions to supply chains stemming from the conflict in the Middle East – that are exposing a significant dependence on Gulf carriers for connectivity to Asia. These issues are forcing airlines to curtail flights, freeze hiring, and reassess long-term strategies.

Fuel Supply Concerns Intensify

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has severely disrupted air traffic over the Gulf region, a critical transit zone for flights between Europe, and Asia. This disruption has led to a tightening of jet fuel supplies, particularly impacting Southeast Asian destinations. Airlines are struggling to secure guarantees about fuel availability in the coming weeks and months.

Air France-KLM CEO Benjamin Smith highlighted the precarious situation, stating the company is “making plans to deal with the fuel shortage,” which include potential restrictions on flights to Asia. Smith emphasized that Southeast Asia is more vulnerable due to its greater reliance on fuel sourced from the Persian Gulf. “We have fuel in Europe, but if we fly to a city in Southeast Asia, we might not get the plane back. If we don’t have fuel secured there, we simply cannot fly,” he explained.

Vietnam has already announced plans to restrict flights due to fuel shortages. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has halted supplies from Kuwait, a major jet fuel exporter, accounting for 15 percent of global maritime jet fuel exports in 2025. China has temporarily halted fuel exports altogether, and South Korea has imposed export limits, exacerbating the problem. KLM has implemented a hiring freeze in response to the soaring fuel prices.

Jet Fuel Prices Soar

Jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the conflict, reaching an all-time high of $1,730 per ton in northern and western Europe as of Wednesday, March 18, 2026 – roughly double the pre-war level. This price surge is adding billions in costs for airlines, leading to flight cancellations. Scandinavian airline SAS has already canceled approximately one thousand flights, and United, Delta, and American Airlines are also facing challenges.

Dependence on Gulf Carriers Exposed

The current crisis is highlighting Europe’s significant reliance on Gulf carriers – Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad – for eastbound connectivity. Benjamin Smith revealed that approximately 100 wide-body aircraft departing Europe depend on Gulf connections to reach destinations in Asia and Southeast Asia. With 600 airplanes currently grounded that normally operate between Europe and Asia, the situation is a “wake-up call” demonstrating the continent’s dependence on these carriers.

The disruption of Gulf routes exposes the disadvantages faced by European carriers due to measures like the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and other regulations that add to their operational burdens. Smith stated that Europe cannot effectively reach many Asian destinations without the support of Gulf carriers.

Looking Ahead

The current situation presents an opportunity for Europe to address its vulnerabilities in aviation connectivity. Smith suggested that changes to energy security, consolidation within the industry, and competition strategies are crucial to ensure Europe remains relevant in the global aviation landscape. Air France-KLM is prepared to shift aircraft and traffic to alternative bases, such as Copenhagen, if necessary, reflecting a normal business response to unfavorable conditions.