The Race for the Mega-IPO: SpaceX, Anthropic and the Modern Guard of Private Markets
The landscape of the private securities market is currently dominated by a high-stakes narrative involving three primary actors: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. As these companies scale, they are no longer just startups; they are financial titans whose eventual public debuts could redefine the S&P 500 and shatter previous records for initial public offerings.
SpaceX’s Path to a Record-Breaking Listing
SpaceX has taken a definitive step toward the public markets by filing confidentially for an initial public offering (IPO). The filing puts the company on a trajectory for a June listing, potentially making it the first of a trio of mega-IPOs alongside OpenAI, and Anthropic.
The scale of this offering is unprecedented. People familiar with the matter suggest SpaceX could seek a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. This valuation follows the company’s acquisition of Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, in a deal that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. If the listing proceeds as planned, SpaceX could raise as much as $75 billion, a figure that would dwarf the $29 billion debut of Saudi Aramco in 2019.
To manage this transition, SpaceX has assembled a powerhouse lineup of financial institutions for senior roles, including:
- Bank of America Corp.
- Citigroup Inc.
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
- JPMorgan Chase & Co.
- Morgan Stanley
Anthropic’s “Insatiable” Demand
While SpaceX prepares for a formal IPO, Anthropic is experiencing a surge of interest in the secondary markets. According to Rainmaker Securities, demand for Anthropic shares has become nearly insatiable, with some buyers indicating they have $2 billion in cash ready to deploy into the company.
This demand is driven by a combination of product popularity and a strategic narrative shift. A public standoff with the Department of Defense, which initially appeared negative, ended up positioning Anthropic as a “hero” taking on big government. This event differentiated the company from OpenAI and amplified its appeal to investors.
OpenAI and the Secondary Market Divergence
The hunger for Anthropic shares stands in stark contrast to the current state of OpenAI’s secondary market. While banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have begun offering OpenAI shares to high-net-worth individuals, some investors are finding it harder to exit. Reports indicate that roughly $600 million in OpenAI shares that investors attempted to sell have struggled to identify takers, even as the rush for Anthropic shares continues.
The Macro Impact: A New S&P 500 Hierarchy
The combined influence of these three entities is so vast that their impact on the public markets would be immediate. J.P. Morgan Asset Management notes that if OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX/xAI were public today, they would likely rank among the 25 largest companies in the S&P 500.
- SpaceX: Confidential IPO filing submitted; targeting a June listing with a potential valuation over $1.75 trillion.
- Anthropic: Facing extreme demand in private markets; buyers have earmarked $2 billion for shares.
- OpenAI: Currently seeing a divergence in secondary market liquidity compared to Anthropic.
- Market Scale: Together, these three would penetrate the top 25 of the S&P 500 if listed today.
Looking Ahead
The coming months will be critical for the private equity and venture capital ecosystems. SpaceX’s “testing-the-waters” investor meetings this month will provide deeper insights into the valuation targets that the market is willing to support. As the first of the trio potentially hits the public market in June, the success of the SpaceX IPO will likely set the pricing benchmark and appetite for the eventual listings of OpenAI and Anthropic.